Sunday, April 21, 2013
Oil slightly lower as growth concerns linger
Oil futures are trading modestly lower in the early part of Monday’s Asian session as traders look for signs about crude’s next move following a savage tumble last week.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for June delivery inched lower by 0.05% to USD88.22 per barrel in Asian trading Monday. That comes after oil slid 3.15% last week, good for the third straight weekly decline. Continue Reading...
Market Analysis Monday 22th of April
ANALYSIS 22-04-2013
Closed Hang Seng Index soars, Mining Stocks and Bank Support
Hong Kong stock exchange for trading Friday closed up significantly yesterday and managed to be above 22,000 basis points. This time gains were supported by rising stock prices of the banking sector and mining stocks. Both of these sectors has increased as a result of the conditions for the rebound in crude oil prices and gold since yesterday.
Technically, the index in the trading session today, Monday (22/04) is likely to strengthen, test positive trend. On the M15 chart bullish hammer berformasi provide opportunities for the index to move upside. However, the volume is likely to increase, as well as an early indication of bullish index. In addition, RSI, on the M15 chart, is in the oversold area, cue upside.
Expected, the index tested the first resistance level of 22243 and 22410. If it fails in 22004, we then estimated the index tends to retest the support level of 21836 and continued up to the possibility of being in the 21689 area.
Dollar Weakens Against Euro exchange rate, Match Analyst Predictions
Euro in trading last week (April 15 to 20) are generally observed trend lower against the U.S. dollar, according to analyst predictions. Trade the currency pair EUR / USD is in the range of 1.3096 after opening at the beginning of the trading week has dropped about -48 pips or about -0.36% and closed at around 1.3048.
Technically, the trading session today, Monday (22/04), the pair euro dollar likely to move in a negative trend.
The weakening Euro is mainly expected to immediately reexamine the minimum support at 1.2871 and 1.2741 maximum. Meanwhile, if the euro is able to break and hold above 1.3056, then another alternative scenario the chance to test Euro Resistance at 1.3192 and 1.3326 area.
Gold futures close higher price, Still Below $ 1.400 At the End of Last Week
Precious Metals prices mixed at the close end of the week the price of gold and palladium rose while the price of silver, copper and platinum fell.
Technically, gold at today’s trading session, Monday (22/04) potential reversal, tested positive trend, but prone to profit taking. Indicator RSI resistance likely to re-test the bullish channel and into the area, but the Bollinger Bands are starting to shrink, thus giving impetus to gold to the downside.
Estimated gold price immediately prior to test resistance at least in the area of 1451.34 and re-test the maximum level of 1480.04. However, if the gold price could not break and stays below 1408.45 then estimated the price of gold has the potential to test Support the 1370.55 and 1339.72.
Friday, April 19, 2013
Jalatama Loco London(XULF)report 19/04/2013
XULF Report 19th April
Soft corporate earnings so far for the first quarter is stripping away the euphoria in equity markets which, along with a rush from bargain hunters in the physical market, has helped gold climb back after Monday’s low.
The $1400 level is providing strong resistance. As you can see on this 1 hour chart price has reversed a number of times within a few dollars of this level. This resistance level is incidentally the neckline of the rather ugly double bottom that has formed. There are opportunities to both buy and short around this important level but it seems more likely price will penetrate and break through this resistance today according to the recent consolidating price action.
Zooming in on the 1 hour chart a pattern, looking like a merge between a bullish flag and a symmetrical triangle, has formed potentially providing a great set-up to open a long. Buy if price breaks through the top line of the flag or wait till a few dollars higher when it has firmly pushed through the $1400 resistance level. Place your stop just below the low point of this consolidation period at $1381. Or if that is too much risk use the Average True Range indicator which measures volatility in order to assess the most appropriate level to place your stop loss given capital constraints. Multiply the ATR by 1.5 to calculate your stop distance which is currently $10.20 away from the entry price. If a buy does present itself target $1420 over two trading sessions which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level in reference to the daily chart.
Market Analysis friday 19th of April
ANALYSIS 19-04-2013
Kospi index plummeted, Touch Points 1900 Level
South Korean stock market for the trading day ended lower Thursday recorded two days earlier after an increase in a row. Exchanges are now experiencing significant negative movement following the investors’ concerns over global trade, especially in commodities markets declined considerably.
Technically, the index in the trading session today, Friday (19/04) likely to weaken, test negative trends, the impact of Wall Street. On the bearish engulfing formation M15 chart gives an opportunity for the index to move downside. However, the volume is likely to increase, an early indication of a bullish index. In addition, RSI, on the M15 chart, is in the oversold area, cue upside.
Expected, the index tested the first support level ie 246.31 and 245.07. If it fails at 248.15, then the next index is expected to tend to retest the 249.59 resistance level and continue up the possibility of being in the 250.75 area.
Outlook Gloomy British Sterling Shadowing
Although capable turned higher against the U.S. Dollar, Sterling remains vulnerable to further decline after the latest economic data maintain the prospect of monetary easing by the Bank of England.
Technically, the trading session today, Friday (19/04), Sterling couple bucks a chance to move in a negative trend.
Sterling weakening primarily expected soon reexamine the minimum support at 1.5221 and 1.5180 maximum. Meanwhile, if Sterling is able to break and hold above 1.5280, then another alternative scenario that Sterling has an opportunity to test the existing Resistance 1.5327 and 1.5363 area.
Gold Prices End Up, Fueled Market Disappointment Over U.S. Economic Data
Gold prices rose in trading days ending last Thursday, the highest price of gold during this week. Rising gold prices this time after receiving support from the disappointment of the market would be U.S. economic data, including the index of regional manufacturing Philadhelpia, amid a sell-off that occurred.
Technically, gold at today’s trading session, Friday (19/04) potential reversal, tested positive trend, but prone to profit taking. Indicator RSI resistance likely to re-test the bullish channel and into the area, but the Bollinger Bands are starting to shrink, thus giving impetus to gold to the downside.
Estimated gold price immediately prior to test resistance at least in the area of 1438.28 and re-test the maximum level of 1468.84. However, if the gold price could not break and stays below 1392.70 then estimated the price of gold has the potential to test Support the 1363.33 and 1333.75.
Wednesday, April 17, 2013
Jalatama Loco London(XULF)report 17/04/2013
XULF Report 17th April
Gold is currently trading around $1380 some $60 off its low yesterday. Further evidence of subdued inflation and a strengthening housing sector in the US failed to prevent gold from making some gains in the aftermath of the yellow metals recent slaughter. The Bollinger bands on the daily chart highlight the overextension of gold’s descent and yesterday’s bullish harami indicates a reversal is probable. Given the aggressive sell-off predicting a retracement target is difficult therefore conservative estimates would be prudent in this current erratic period. Therefore target the 38.2% Fib level at $1423 as profit taking level for long positions. Before execution check a shorter timeframe to look for signals of a double bottom taking shape because it is likely price will drop slightly before going higher.
The 1 hour chart shows more detail regarding the steepness of the decline and the subsequent counter trend. Like investors and traders have seen many times in the past a double bottom can form before a sustained retracement fulfils its potential. Therefore be patient and wait for price to make a higher low before entering a long position. This will also enable a lower risk position as the stop loss will be place under yesterday’s low of $1321. Note the fractal indicator sell signal as well which can be useful
Wait for higher low for low risk entry
Fractal Indicator Sell signal
Drilling down into a smaller timeframe shows the 15 minute chart has developed a descending channel indicating a possible price decline before the retracement fulfils itself.
Market Analysis wednesday 17th of April
ANALYSIS 17-04-2013
Hang Seng Index weakens, stocks tumbled Fares
In Tuesday trading yesterday the Hong Kong stock exchange closed anymore. Negative trend occurred since early morning trade exchange which stressed the impact of the movement of the majority of the performance decline scan the majority of the stock exchange in Asia and the impact anjloknya shares in the mine due to weakening oil prices.
Technically, the index on the trading session today, Wednesday (17/04) chance to weaken, test negative trends, browse Wall Street. On the bearish engulfing formation M15 chart provides an opportunity for the index to move downside. However, the volume tends to rise, early indications bullish index. In addition, RSI, on the M15 chart, selling in saturated areas, signal upside.
Partly, the index test in advance Support level ie 21 473 and 21 351. If they fail at 21 667, then the index is estimated to tend to test further back resistance level that is 21 796 and the possibility of being extended to the 21923 area.
Currencies Euro Drops Further Against Dollar, Confidence Institutional Investor and Analyst Deteriorating
In forex movements European session yesterday Tuesday, the Euro exchange rate generally indicate movement down against the U.S. Dollar after opening at 1.3052 in early trading (00:00 GMT) on the EURUSD pair. The value of the currency has dropped about -18 pips or about -0.13% and at the time this news was revealed on the rolling monitored 1.3034.
Technically, the trading session today, Wednesday (17/04), the pair euro dollar opportunity to move in a negative trend.
Predicted weakening of the Euro, especially immediately test back Support minimum and maximum that is at 1.3068 1.3004. And as, if able to break and last Euro above 1.3175, then the other alternative scenario ie Euro chance to test resistance at 1.3263 and 1.3339 area.
LLG Gold Price Rises, Action Asia Buy Physical Gold
LLG gold prices rebounded due to increased purchases of physical gold in China and India due to low gold prices, and the Central Bank Srilangka, Korea, and Australia is planning to increase its gold proposal.
Technically, gold trading session today, Wednesday (17/04) reversal potential, tested positive trend, but prone to profit taking. RSI indicators tend to re-test resistance bullish channel and head area, but Bollinger band began to shrink, giving impetus to gold to the downside.
Chance of gold price immediately prior to test resistance at least in the area and re-test 1437.82 maximum level of 1474.25. But if the price of gold can not afford to break and survive under 1377.70 then predicted the gold price potentially testing Support ie 1335.16 and 1302.05.
Monday, April 15, 2013
Jalatama Loco London(XULF)report 16/04/2013
XULF Report 16th April
Gold has been in free fall dropping over $230 since Friday and is likely to decline further before a stabilization period. There has been a combination of a few factors that collectively have had an enormous and sudden impact on gold. Cyprus’s gold sale triggering speculation other indebted nations will follow suit, more signals that China’s growth is slowing down, a strengthening dollar and most importantly lowering inflation across the globe.
The decline may begin to lose its speed but should continue before hitting a bottom therefore focus on the 15 minute and 1 hour charts wait for a small retracement followed by a bearish candlestick and execute a short. Application of trend lines will also aid better market timing. This 15 min chart displays two bearish trend lines that could be applied but do be aware trend lines on short timeframes have less resistance/support so price may break the trend lines before continuing its descent. Price has already retraced almost $30 from the low of $1321 this morning therefore be poised to short the market imminently.
Remember that this week is a big week for earnings with one third of the Dow Jones reporting. Also later this evening the German ZEW Sentiment, US Building Permits and ECB President Mario Draghi speaks at a conference which all could instigate more market moves.
Market Analysis of Tuesday 16th April 2013
ANALYSIS 16-04-2013
The Nikkei slips, impact of decline in China’s GDP
Japanese shares for trading on Monday closed lower. Decline in China’s GDP for the first quarter of this year by 0.2% to 7.7% to be the main indicator of weakening markets in addition to the Japanese government plans to devalue the yen in order to lift the performance of the Japanese currency.
Technically, the index in the trading session today, Tuesday (16/04) likely to weaken, test negative trends, the impact of Wall Street. On the bearish engulfing formation M15 chart gives an opportunity for the index to move downside. However, the volume is likely to increase, an early indication of a bullish index. In addition, RSI, on the M15 chart, is in the oversold area, cue upside.
Expected, the index tested the first support level ie 12971 and 12925. If it fails in 13045, we then estimated the index tends to retest the resistance level of 13097 and continued up to the possibility of being in the 13141 area.
Aussie Weakens Despite Improved Economic Data
Monday, the Australian dollar hit yesterday weakened to reach the 1.0455 dollar. Aussie fell sharply compared to the close of trading last weekend in the level of 1.0506 dollars.
Technically, the trading session today, Tuesday (16/04), the Aussie dollar pair has a chance to move in a negative trend.
Weakening Aussie primarily expected soon reexamine the minimum support at 1.0230 and 1.0189 maximum. Meanwhile, if the Aussie able to break and hold above 1.0308, then another alternative scenario the chance to test Euro Resistance at 1.0354 and 1.0391 area.
LLG Gold prices dropped 19% in two days, the lowest to Two Years
LLG gold prices tumbled 14% in two days, down 5% on Friday, and on Monday fell 9%, so the price to the lowest level in 2 years.
Technically, gold at today’s trading session on Tuesday (16/04) potentially bearish, test returned negative trend, but prone to reversal. RSI indicator tends to re-test support channel and towards the oversold area, but Bollinger Band which began to widen, thus giving impetus to gold to the upside.
Estimated gold price immediately prior to test support at least in the area of 1284.53 and re-test the maximum level of 1257.56. However, if the price of gold is able to break and hold above 1332.60 then estimated the price of gold could potentially test the Resistance 1367.43 and 1399.39.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for June delivery are lower by 0.72% at USD90.95 per barrel in Asian trading Monday.
Venezuela, a member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, is holding its first election today since former President Hugo Chavez passed away just several weeks ago. While the country is believed to be home to perhaps the largest oil reserves in the world, its production slid under Chavez due to nationalization and declining investment in oil infrastructure.
Some market participants are hoping that Venezuelan voters will opt for a new form of government that will lead to increased oil production and high levels of foreign direct investment. However, those scenarios seem unlikely as several international media agencies reported that Chavez’s chosen heir, Nicolas Maduro, held a double-digit lead heading into Sunday’s polling. http://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/oil-lower-ahead-of-venezuela-election-results-246535
Jalatama Loco London(XULF)report 15/04/2013
Gold Report 15th April
Gold Report 15th April
Reports of Cyprus selling their gold reserves and recent cuts to gold price forecasts have been the main catalysts for this huge sell-off for the precious metal. Gold seemed to fall off the cliff at $1558 around 17:00 on Friday and hasn’t looked back since notwithstanding surprisingly poor US Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment and disappointing Chinese GDP. An unloading of 400 million Euros of gold reserves does not in itself represent an amount to cause the extent of the recent decline, however, this Cyprus sale has sparked fears that other highly indebted peripheral Eurozone nations will follow suit leading to many investors unwinding large positions. In general gold is losing its lustre amid economic growth and low inflation but there is sure to be some bargain hunters at these levels of $1448 plus many longs who missed their chance to sell may wait for a pullback before unwinding again.
No doubt the short play is the trade to look for in the current environment but a pullback trade is possible for the impatient market participants. A typical signal for the retracement trade is a bullish hammer that has recently printed on the 15 minute but do be wary and tread carefully as there have been false bullish hammer signals before. Also the RSI is still below the 30 level therefore waiting for more evidence of a pullback such as a higher low is advisable before taking a risk and buying.
The daily chart illustrates the huge drop for gold and price is currently trading well below the lower Bollinger band. Given the severity of the decline an imminent and proportional bounce back is unlikely therefore expect gold to develop a new trading range of between $1450 and $1480 for a while as the market stabilizes. Investors need to be glued to their computer screens this week whilst having gold exposure as one third of the Dow Jones components are scheduled to release earnings.
Sunday, April 14, 2013
Market Analysis of Monday 15th April 2013
ANALYSIS 15-04-2013
Due Kospi index plummeted Security Tensions in Korea
South Korean shares fell after the end of the previous two days has increased. Weakening market movements triggered by the concerns of investors on security conditions on the Korean Peninsula. Investors are quite concerned that the North Korean military will launch missiles into South Korean territory in the next few days.
Technically, the index in the trading session today, Monday (15/04) likely to weaken, test negative trends, the impact of Wall Street. On the bearish engulfing formation M15 chart gives an opportunity for the index to move downside. However, the volume is likely to increase, an early indication of bullish index. In addition, RSI, on the M15 chart, is in the oversold area, cue upside.
Expected, the index tested the first support level ie 248.46 and 246.79. If it fails at 251.30, then the next index is expected to tend to retest the 253.30 resistance level and continue up the possibility of being in the 255.10 area.
Sterling Gains Against U.S. Dollar, Match Predictions
Sterling exchange rate on the trade last week showed the trend generally observed edged higher against the U.S. Dollar. Trading the currency pair GBP / USD is in the range of 1.5306 after opening at the beginning of the trading week has climbed about 32 pips or about + + 0:21% and closed at around 1.5339.
Technically, today’s trading session on Monday (15/04), pair sterling dollar likely to move in a positive trend.
Strengthening of sterling primarily expected soon reexamine the minimal resistance at 1.5532 and 1.5685 maximum. Meanwhile, if sterling was unable to break and stays below 1.5348 then the other alternative scenarios that sterling sterling opportunity to test existing Support 1.5213 and 1.5098 area.
Gold sinks, Experience Bearish Market Territory
Gold fell nearly 4% on Friday, entering bear market territory as institutional investors moved to take off bullion with other safe-haven assets amid concerns about central bank gold sales and a drop in sentiment.
Technically, gold at today’s trading session on Monday (15/04) potentially bearish, test returned negative trend, but prone to reversal. RSI indicator tends to re-test support channel and towards the oversold area, but Bollinger Band which began to widen, thus giving impetus to gold to the upside.
Estimated gold price immediately prior to test support at least in the area of 1459.52 and re-test the maximum level of 1441.43. However, if the price of gold is able to break and hold above 1486.55 then estimated the price of gold could potentially test the Resistance 1504.74 and 1523.47.
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