XULF Report – 28/06

Fall continues

XULF Report

The fall continues but there could be a bottom in sight now some gold miners are cutting back on production as it becomes less economically viable to continue output under $1200. Rising real interest rates attributed to speculators betting on the Federal Reserve raising rates during 2014 has contributed to gold being shunned to the sideline. Some Fed officials commented that the speculators actions doesn’t align with Ben Bernanke’s assessment of the economy last week and his language in regards to the Fed’s next move being data dependent and flexible. However this speculation has helped the bears force gold down.

This weekly chart shows gold’s bull run since October 2008 and since hitting a peak of $1921 in September 2011 gold has been on a general retracement. An important potential support level is $1159 which is the 61.8% fib retracement level which is incidentally a previous support. Price did drop as low as $1179 and is currently hovering around $1200 any traders looking to buy should consider placing stop losses under $1159 as long, medium and short term traders will all be keeping an eye on interaction with this level.

The 4 hour chart is hinting of a reversal now it’s printed a strong bullish hammer that looks to be perfect as the shadow is multiple times longer than the body and it is equal size to the bearish marubozu two candlesticks prior. More confirmation can be gleaned from the Stochastic which has generated a buy signal but bear in mind the RSI is still below 30. Therefore there is a probability a small bounce could occur however there is resistance forming at $1207 and bulls will be nervous by the fact price hasn’t yet bounced off the $1159 Fib level yet so trade cautiously and don’t be greedy if going long. A break up through this morning’s resistance at 1207 should trigger buying demand but bulls will find more resistance around $1213 where price could intersect with the current medium term bearish trend.

Market Analysis Friday 28th of June

1.5 Percent Loss?

Hang Seng Index ended strengthened Follow Asian Stock More

Hong Kong stock exchange yesterday ended the day Thursday. Strengthening sufficiently constant movement distinction exchange trading condition Thursday remembering yesterday covered by positive sentiment coming from a majority of strengthening Asian bourses and U.S. stock exchange yesterday. Investors also quite passionate in doing the action and purchase of shares, especially banking stocks and fares.

Technically, the index on the trading session today, Friday (28/06) have the opportunity to strengthen, test positive trend. On the H1 chart bullish hammer formation provides an opportunity for the index to move upside. However, the volume tends to increase, as well as an early indication bulish index. In addition, RSI, on the H1 chart, selling in saturated areas, signal upside.

Partly, the index test prior resistance level that is 21 481 and 22155. If failed in the 20549, the estimated index tend to test further back level Support ie 19 877 and the possibility of being extended to 19 202 in the area.

Consumer sentiment shore Euro Rebound

Yielding euro rebounded against the U.S. Dollar concomitant improvement in economic confidence the 17-nation bloc that transcends economists predicted. Executive and consumer sentiment index rose to 91.3 in June from 89.5 in May, according to the European Commission in Brussels, the better-than-estimated 90.4. Euro also benefited by U.S. data, which tends to erode the reduction speculation the Federal Reserve’s monetary stimulus in the near future.

Technically, today’s trading session on Friday (28/06), the pair euro dollar opportunity to move in a positive trend.

Strengthening of the Euro, especially predicted back soon test resistance at 1.3205 ie the minimum and maximum of 1.3328. And as, if the Euro is not able to break below 1.3036 and then endure another alternative scenario ie the Euro had the opportunity to test Support at 1.2896 and 1.2773 area.

Gold Closes Down By 1.5 Percent Loss

Gold futures on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange fell on Thursday (Friday morning hrs), extending the decline to 34-month low, as U.S. economic data exceed analyst estimates, scraping metal attractiveness as a store of value.

Technically, gold trading session today on Friday (28/03) potentially bearish, test returned negative trend, but prone to reversal. RSI indicators tend to re-test Support channel oversold area and heading, but Bollinger Bands are beginning to widen, thus providing the impetus for gold for upside.

Chance of gold price immediately prior to test Support at least in the area of ​​re-test 1139.10 and 1106.72 maximum level. But if the price of gold is able to break above 1191.50 and defending the gold price estimated potential test resistance ie 1227.15 and 1261.93.

Daily Analysis of Gold Market 27 June 2013 - by Jordan Lambert

XULF Report – 27/06

Gold decline continued

XULF Report

The gold decline continued through yesterday but seems to have found a bottom at $1221 and is currently trading in the $1230’s. The shocking final measure of US GDP for the 1st quarter which was revised down to 1.8% from 2.4% which is bad news for the economy but good news for stocks as the Dow Jones had a triple digit rally. Gold hasn’t reacted as well but has managed to climb a few dollars however the outlook still looks bearish.

The 1 hour chart shows the latest candlestick has printed a engulfing bearish whilst simultaneously making a lower high whilst at the same turning around resistance. Three factors signalling bearish on one chart means we are likely to see gold move lower from here and maybe test support towards the lower $1220’s. Place stop above previous candlesticks high around $1245 and target support in the lower $1220’s which offer a good risk to reward ratio. If price begins to make new highs it is probable the reversal will take place.

The daily chart’s RSI is still converging with price action by showing lower lows which signals price isn’t ready to reverse just yet.

Economic influences traders need to be mindful of today are the Italian 10 year Bond Auction which unfortunately has no specific schedule but is likely to be around 10am GMT, the UK’s Current Account at 9:30 GMT and US Weekly Jobless Claims and Pending Home Sales 13:30 and 3pm GMT respectively.

Market Analysis Thursday 27th of June

Gold yesterday touched the lowest level

Strengthening Thin End Successfully Kospi Index Bearish Trend

South Korean shares for trading on Wednesday ended an increase. As well as trading in South Korean stock markets caused by the increase in the volume of stock purchases due to the conducive trade in Asian stock markets after the rise in U.S. stocks overnight. Aggressive investors are back in the hunt for shares of exporters.

Technically, the index in the trading session today, Thursday (27/06) is likely to strengthen, test positive trend. On the bullish hammer formation M30 chart gives an opportunity for the index to move upside. However, the volume is likely to increase, as well as an early indication of bullish index. In addition, RSI, on the M30 chart, is in the oversold area, cue upside.

Expected, the index tested the first resistance level of 250.36 and 254.05. If it fails at 245.55, then the next index is expected to tend to retest the 241.90 support level and continue up the possibility of being in the 238.37 area.

Euro Burdened By Draghi Policy Attitudes

The euro slumped to a 3-week lows versus the U.S. dollar after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi highlighted the risk of slowing growth in the Euro zone and ensure monetary policy will remain accommodative.

Technically, the trading session today, Thursday (27/06), the pair euro dollar likely to move in a negative trend.

The weakening Euro is mainly expected to immediately reexamine the minimum support at 1.2837 and 1.2699 maximum. Meanwhile, if the euro is able to break and hold above 1.3025, then another alternative scenario the chance to test Euro Resistance at 1.3147 and 1.3262 area.

Worst Performance Gold In 1st Quarter

Gold yesterday touched the lowest level of the last was three years ago, and to the worst record in the quarter decreased, due to the strong dollar, the potential improvement in U.S. economic data, strengthening of global stock markets, and lack of physical demand for gold. In the second quarter, gold has dropped about 23%, the worst performance of gold in a single quarter since 1968 according to Reuters. Goldman Sachs and HSBC also cut its outlook for the gold price this year-end and year-end 2014.

Technically, gold at today’s trading session on Thursday (27/06) potentially bearish, test returned negative trend, but prone to reversal. RSI indicator tends to re-test support channel and towards the oversold area, but Bollinger Band which began to widen, thus giving impetus to gold to the upside.

Estimated gold price immediately prior to test support at least in the area of ​​1205.88 and re-test the maximum level of 1182.18. However, if the price of gold is able to break and hold above 1238.55 then estimated the price of gold could potentially test the Resistance 1261.93 and 1285.27.

Daily Analysis of Gold Market 26 June 2013 - by Jordan Lambert

XULF Report – 26/06

Gold has not reacted well

XULF Report

Equity markets had been recently reacting negatively to strong US data as it implies the Fed will kick-start their stimulus exit plan into gear although yesterday saw a different and more refreshing response to such data. US Durable Goods Orders, New Home Sales and Consumer Confidence were all better than expected and showed a strengthening US economy and investors gave a moderately positive reply which could be early signs that investors can cope with the concept of stimulus withdrawal. Gold however has not reacted well. It was mentioned in yesterday’s report that this week’s data will be closely scrutinized to see whether the Fed’s intention will materialise and the latest data from the US means it is getting closer and closer.

As I write gold is still tumbling smashing through Friday’s $1269.51 low and now traders should look to trade with the trend and execute shorts on pullbacks to Fibonacci levels and/or execute as price makes new lows. Well done if you are currently in this downtrend but if you are considering the best time to exit and cash in profits either wait for a strong bullish hammer with the shadow twice as long as the body and loner than the prior candlestick. This will signal a reversal and offer a good opportunity to exit and also give traders looking to enter long. If a bullish hammer doesn’t print watch out for a higher lows on a shorter timeframe which can indicate the current trend has exhausted itself and ready to recover somewhat. Trying to buy before candlestick confirmation is like trying to a catch a falling knife so wait for a bullish hammer or higher lows showing short term trend change.

If you have missed this decline wait for price to pullback and intersect with the yellow bearish trend line shown on this 5 minute chart. If it bounces sell and if price breaks the yellow line we could see a small retracement. The horizontal red lines show today’s potential resistance levels so again look to short if price approaches them levels. On summary definitely look for shorts rather than long trades because the absence of support until we move below $1200 means the market could easily keep dropping.