Market Analysis Monday 3rd of July

 Gold slips as a stronger dollar

ANALYSIS 03-07-2013

Post-Holiday, Hong Kong Exchanges Closed Down

Hong Kong shares to trading on Tuesday recorded a decline. Post-holiday trading yesterday, the Hong Kong stock market has become weaker due to a negative sentiment about the decline in China’s manufacturing sector data for the month of May.

Technically, the index in the trading session today, Wednesday (03/07) is likely to strengthen, test positive trend. On the M15 chart bullish hammer berformasi provide opportunities for the index to move upside. However, the volume is likely to increase, as well as an early indication of bullish index. In addition, RSI, on the M15 chart, is in the oversold area, cue upside.

Expected, the index tested the first resistance level of 20745 and 20793. If it fails at 20 660, then the index is expected to tend to test the next support level ie 20 599 back and continued up to the possibility of being in the area of ​​20 543.

Dollar Translucent Again Above Resistance Level

The dollar rose against various major currencies marked USDJPY pairing breakout above 100.00 level for the first time in the last month while the EURUSD testing 1.3000 psychological level in 5 consecutive days.

Technically, the trading session today, Wednesday (03/07), the pair euro dollar likely to move in a negative trend.

The weakening Euro is mainly expected to immediately reexamine the minimum support at 1.2852 and 1.2764 maximum. Meanwhile, if the euro is able to break and hold above 1.2970, then another alternative scenario the chance to test Euro Resistance at 1.3059 and 1.3147 area.

Gold Slips As A stronger dollar

Gold edged lower on Tuesday as the dollar strengthened and investors looking for further indications that the Federal Reserve may soon put an end to the U.S. stimulus program.

Technically, gold at today’s trading session on Wednesday (03/07) potentially bearish, test returned negative trend, but prone to reversal. RSI indicator tends to re-test support channel and towards the oversold area, but Bollinger Band which began to widen, thus giving impetus to gold to the upside.

Estimated gold price immediately prior to test support at least in the area of ​​1211.34 and re-test the maximum level of 1183.54. However, if the price of gold is able to break and hold above 1244.30 then estimated the price of gold could potentially test the Resistance 1273.01 and 1299.98.

Market Analysis Monday 2nd of July

Encouraging on physical demand

The Nikkei Continue Positive Trend 3 Days

Japanese shares for trading on Monday closed up. Encouragement of the impact of the depreciation of the yen against the U.S. dollar which is currently predicted at the level of 99.59 per U.S. dollar back into equities a key factor in addition to a report Monday on upbeat data Tankan manufacturing index for the month of May by 4 points, or higher compared with a previous prediction by 3 points.

Technically, the index in the trading session today, Tuesday (02/07) likely to weaken, test negative trends, the impact of Wall Street. On the bearish engulfing formation M15 chart gives an opportunity for the index to move downside. However, the volume is likely to increase, an early indication of a bullish index. In addition, RSI, on the M15 chart, is in the oversold area, cue upside.

Expected, the index tested the first support level ie 13 842 and 13 763. If it fails in 13970, we then estimated the index tends to retest the resistance level of 14024 and continued up to the possibility of being in the 14098 area.

The yen fell against the dollar

The yen fell against the dollar hit the lowest level that has never happened since the last three weeks, as the central bank’s Tankan data is released showing the level of large-scale manufacturing sector is optimistic in the second quarter and reached the highest level in the last 2 years.

Technically, today’s trading session on Tuesday (02/07), the dollar yen pair has a chance to move in a positive trend.

A stronger yen primarily expected soon reexamine the minimal resistance at 101.15 and 102.17 maximum. Meanwhile, if the Yen was able to break and stays below 99.54 then another alternative scenario that is likely to test support Yen’s in the area of ​​98.21 and 97.13.

Gold Turning Direction After Falling to Lowest Since 2010

Gold rose for a second day in New York on speculation falling to 34-month low and the biggest quarterly fall on record will encourage physical demand.

Technically, gold in the trading session today, Tuesday (02/07) potential reversal, tested positive trend, but prone to profit taking. Indicator RSI resistance likely to re-test the bullish channel and into the area, but the Bollinger Bands are starting to shrink, thus giving impetus to gold to the downside.

Estimated gold price immediately prior to test resistance at least in the area of ​​1263.29 and re-test the maximum level of 1267.93. However, if the gold price could not break and stays below 1257.05 then estimated the price of gold has the potential to test Support the 1251.97 and 1247.18.

Market Analysis Monday 1st of July

Signs of rising demand

ANALYSIS 01-08-2013

Conditions Rally Still Happening in South Korean stocks

Positive trend occurred again in South Korea stock market. In trading Friday, the South Korean market was back in bullish trend due to the impact of a rise in U.S. stocks overnight is driven by the effect of lowering the jobless claims data for last week amounted to 7 thousand.

Technically, the index in the trading session today, Monday (01/07) is likely to strengthen, test positive trend. At the H4 chart informa bullish hammer gives an opportunity for the index to move upside. However, the volume is likely to increase, as well as an early indication of a bullish index. In addition, RSI, on the H4 chart, is in the oversold area, cue upside.

Expected, the index tested the first resistance level of 260.67 and 273.73. If it fails at 232.03, then the next index is expected to tend to retest the 232.03 support level and continue up the possibility of being in the 221.07 area.

Pound Down Under Analyst Predictions

Sterling in trade week is generally observed plainly shows weakening trend against the U.S. dollar. Trading the currency pair GBP / USD is in the range of 1.5386 after opening at the beginning of the trading week was down about -177 pips or about -1.15% and closed at around 1.5209.

Technically, the trading session today, Monday (01/07), Strerling couple of dollars likely to move in a negative trend.

Weakening Strerling primarily expected soon retest the support at 1.5025 minimum and maximum 1.4919. Meanwhile, if Strerling able to break and hold above 1.5204, then another alternative scenario Strerling the chance to test the existing Resistance 1.5313 and 1.5425 area.

Gold Rebound from Low 34 Months

Spot gold prices rebounded from 34-month lows, the biggest jump in a month, as signs of rising demand for jewelry, coins and bullion after the precious metal is headed to its biggest quarterly fall in at least 93 years old.

Technically, gold at today’s trading session, Monday (01/07) potential reversal, tested positive trend, but prone to profit taking. Indicator RSI resistance likely to re-test the bullish channel and into the area, but the Bollinger Bands are starting to shrink, thus giving impetus to gold to the downside.

Estimated gold price immediately prior to test resistance at least in the area of ​​1267.33 and re-test the maximum level of 1295.91. However, if the gold price could not break and stays below 1229.35 then estimated the price of gold has the potential to test Support the 1196.35 and 1167.78.

Market Analysis Thursday 27th of June

Gold yesterday touched the lowest level

Strengthening Thin End Successfully Kospi Index Bearish Trend

South Korean shares for trading on Wednesday ended an increase. As well as trading in South Korean stock markets caused by the increase in the volume of stock purchases due to the conducive trade in Asian stock markets after the rise in U.S. stocks overnight. Aggressive investors are back in the hunt for shares of exporters.

Technically, the index in the trading session today, Thursday (27/06) is likely to strengthen, test positive trend. On the bullish hammer formation M30 chart gives an opportunity for the index to move upside. However, the volume is likely to increase, as well as an early indication of bullish index. In addition, RSI, on the M30 chart, is in the oversold area, cue upside.

Expected, the index tested the first resistance level of 250.36 and 254.05. If it fails at 245.55, then the next index is expected to tend to retest the 241.90 support level and continue up the possibility of being in the 238.37 area.

Euro Burdened By Draghi Policy Attitudes

The euro slumped to a 3-week lows versus the U.S. dollar after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi highlighted the risk of slowing growth in the Euro zone and ensure monetary policy will remain accommodative.

Technically, the trading session today, Thursday (27/06), the pair euro dollar likely to move in a negative trend.

The weakening Euro is mainly expected to immediately reexamine the minimum support at 1.2837 and 1.2699 maximum. Meanwhile, if the euro is able to break and hold above 1.3025, then another alternative scenario the chance to test Euro Resistance at 1.3147 and 1.3262 area.

Worst Performance Gold In 1st Quarter

Gold yesterday touched the lowest level of the last was three years ago, and to the worst record in the quarter decreased, due to the strong dollar, the potential improvement in U.S. economic data, strengthening of global stock markets, and lack of physical demand for gold. In the second quarter, gold has dropped about 23%, the worst performance of gold in a single quarter since 1968 according to Reuters. Goldman Sachs and HSBC also cut its outlook for the gold price this year-end and year-end 2014.

Technically, gold at today’s trading session on Thursday (27/06) potentially bearish, test returned negative trend, but prone to reversal. RSI indicator tends to re-test support channel and towards the oversold area, but Bollinger Band which began to widen, thus giving impetus to gold to the upside.

Estimated gold price immediately prior to test support at least in the area of ​​1205.88 and re-test the maximum level of 1182.18. However, if the price of gold is able to break and hold above 1238.55 then estimated the price of gold could potentially test the Resistance 1261.93 and 1285.27.

XULF Report – 26/06

Gold has not reacted well

XULF Report

Equity markets had been recently reacting negatively to strong US data as it implies the Fed will kick-start their stimulus exit plan into gear although yesterday saw a different and more refreshing response to such data. US Durable Goods Orders, New Home Sales and Consumer Confidence were all better than expected and showed a strengthening US economy and investors gave a moderately positive reply which could be early signs that investors can cope with the concept of stimulus withdrawal. Gold however has not reacted well. It was mentioned in yesterday’s report that this week’s data will be closely scrutinized to see whether the Fed’s intention will materialise and the latest data from the US means it is getting closer and closer.

As I write gold is still tumbling smashing through Friday’s $1269.51 low and now traders should look to trade with the trend and execute shorts on pullbacks to Fibonacci levels and/or execute as price makes new lows. Well done if you are currently in this downtrend but if you are considering the best time to exit and cash in profits either wait for a strong bullish hammer with the shadow twice as long as the body and loner than the prior candlestick. This will signal a reversal and offer a good opportunity to exit and also give traders looking to enter long. If a bullish hammer doesn’t print watch out for a higher lows on a shorter timeframe which can indicate the current trend has exhausted itself and ready to recover somewhat. Trying to buy before candlestick confirmation is like trying to a catch a falling knife so wait for a bullish hammer or higher lows showing short term trend change.

If you have missed this decline wait for price to pullback and intersect with the yellow bearish trend line shown on this 5 minute chart. If it bounces sell and if price breaks the yellow line we could see a small retracement. The horizontal red lines show today’s potential resistance levels so again look to short if price approaches them levels. On summary definitely look for shorts rather than long trades because the absence of support until we move below $1200 means the market could easily keep dropping.

Market Analysis Wednesday 26th of June

Positive economic data to increase market expectations

Nikkei fizzled, China Economic Concerns

Japanese stock exchange to trade Tuesday closed yesterday weakened by fears will shape China’s banking sector in line with the stress that the central bank should immediately remove policy stimulus in order to maintain China’s economy amid the economic slowdown predicted for this year. The need for the availability of a stimulus policy is not much different from the Japanese economy despite the Bank of Japan stated there can be no stimulus in the short term.

Technically, the index on the trading session today, Wednesday (26/06) chance to weaken, test negative trends, browse Wall Street. On the bearish engulfing formation M15 chart provides an opportunity for the index to move downside. However, the volume tends to rise, early indications bulish index. In addition, RSI, on the M15 chart, selling in saturated areas, signal upside.

Partly, the index test in advance Support level ie 12 991 and 12 752. If they fail at 13 335, then the index is estimated to tend to test further back resistance level that is 13 615 and the possibility of being extended to 13 839 in the area.

Draghi comments Muffled Disability Rehabilitation Euro

Euro slips to 5th session streak against the U.S. Dollar on Tuesday yesterday’s post European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said that the condition of the euro area economy still requires monetary stimulus policy.

Technically, the trading session today, Wednesday (26/06), the pair euro dollar opportunity to move in a negative trend.

Predicted weakening of the Euro, especially immediately test back Support minimum and maximum that is at 1.3027 1.2986. And as, if able to break and last Euro above 1.3081, then the other alternative scenario ie Euro chance to test resistance at 1.3129 and 1.3169 area.

Gold prices ended down, embedded U.S. economic data

Gold trading in the U.S. session begins with the rising price of gold, but then followed by further sales action, following positive U.S. economic data to increase market expectations that the U.S. Central Bank will begin to soften its monetary economic policy that departs on disability stimulate the economy, create Dollars The U.S. currency strengthened on the other and dropping government obligations.

Technically, today’s gold trading session this Wednesday (26/06) potentially bearish, test returned negative trend, but prone to reversal. RSI indicators tend to re-test Support channel oversold area and heading, but Bollinger Bands are beginning to widen, thus providing the impetus for gold for upside.

Chance of gold price immediately prior to test Support at least in the area of ​​re-test 1238.97 and 1211.18 maximum level. But if the price of gold is able to break above 1275.15 and defending the gold price estimated potential test resistance ie 1302.34 and 1326.65.

Market Analysis Tuesday 25th of June

Ben Bernanke concerning policy stimulus assessed is unclear

Korean Stock Market Hit Bottom Up to 1800 Points

Lower back movement occurred in South Korea stock market where negative pressure is obtained from the weakening of the majority of stock markets in Asia. Broadly speaking, the Asian stock market sentiment was hit by a concern for the U.S. economy as the potential decrease in the amount of U.S. economic stimulus package.

Technically, the index in the trading session today, Tuesday (25/06) likely to weaken, test negative trends, the impact of Wall Street. At the H4 chart bearish engulfing formation provides opportunities for the index to move downside. However, the volume is likely to increase, an early indication of bullish index. In addition, RSI, on the H4 chart, is in the oversold area, cue upside.

Expected, the index tested the first support level ie 236.97 and 230.55. If it fails at 245.55, then the next index is expected to tend to retest the 251.32 resistance level and continue up the possibility of being in the 256.42 area.

USDJPY soared Related Comments BoJ Iwata

Pairing USDJPY soared 30 points in a while due to BoJ Iwata’s comments stating that the central bank still has several options of monetary policy.

Technically, the trading session today, Tuesday (25/06), the dollar yen pair has a chance to move in a negative trend.

Weakening Yen primarily expected soon reexamine the minimum support at 95.56 and 94.32 maximum. Meanwhile, if the Yen is able to break and hold above 97.55, then another alternative scenario the chance to test Resistance Yen’s in the area of ​​98.84 and 100.04.

Gold prices Makin dimmed, Negative Fundamentals

Gold prices to trade tonight again decreased. As with other futures investments trading, precious metals commodity prices are also overwhelmed by the pressure coming from the U.S. economy. Statement from Fed Governor Ben Bernanke concerning policy stimulus assessed is unclear at the moment. However nominal 85 billion dollars which will be designated as the purchase of the notes is expected to be realized in the next year.

Technically, gold at today’s trading session on Tuesday (25/06) potentially bearish, test returned negative trend, but prone to reversal. RSI indicator tends to re-test support channel and towards the oversold area, but Bollinger Band which began to widen, thus giving impetus to gold to the upside.

Estimated gold price immediately prior to test support at least in the area of ​​1241.00 and re-test the maximum level of 1212.01. However, if the price of gold is able to break and hold above 1281.70 then estimated the price of gold could potentially test the Resistance 1310.78 and 1337.61.

XULF Report 18/06 - Markets are awaiting for Bernanke's comments at the FOMC press conference

XULF Report

Another quiet and range bound period is expected today as the markets wait for Bernanke’s comments at the FOMC press conference on Wednesday scheduled 19:00 GMT. Taking into account the mixed bag of data and the unspectacular May Non-Farms Bernanke is likely to reiterate stimulus reduction is data dependant therefore gold looks like it could be stuck in the $1375 to $1390 range for some time to come. There could be some volatility beforehand if the US housing data tonight shows further improvement in new builds which could cause a spike in equities and suppress gold but it does feel like gold needs a significant shift in the fundamental outlook in order for the bears to gain control over the bulls.

Keep looking to sell at resistance and buy at support levels displayed by shooting stars and hammers and/or two or more touches of a certain price level as this is the best way to capture a few dollars of profit before we see the big next move. It is worth noting the bullish trendline that is visible on the 1 hour chart coloured green. As I write price is sitting on the trendline making its fourth touch so there could be an opportunity to achieve a short term profit via a bounce or break. The red horizontal line displays shorter term resistance at $1385 that has received 3 touches so far today so again look for bounce or breaks at this level.

Taking a longer term view from a technical perspective remember the two side by side shooting stars on the weekly chart which has now been followed by a bullish hammer. The shadows on the shooting stars are longer than the hammers shadow meaning the bears still have the upper hand so look for good entry levels to short if you don’t mind taking on the risk and volatility that will occur on Wednesday. Sometimes candlesticks do not have immediate effects but can influence price at a later date.

Market Analysis Tuesday 18th of June

ANALYSIS 18-06-2013

Kospi worry about Global Economy

Kospi fell as widespread concerns over global economic growth outlook. G-8 confirms outlook for the global economy remains weak despite slowdown risk has been reduced.

Technically, the index in the trading session today, Tuesday (18/06) likely to weaken, test negative trends, the impact of Wall Street. On the M30 chart bearish engulfing berformasi provide opportunities for the index to move downside. However, the volume is likely to increase, an early indication of bullish index. In addition, RSI, on the M30 chart, is in the oversold area, cue upside.

Expected, the index tested the first support level ie 241.16 and 238.37. If it fails at 245.55, then the next index is expected to tend to retest the 248.66 resistance level and continue up the possibility of being in the 251.55 area.

Stock Trading Session duration in Europe, Euro Steady Against U.S. Dollar

Trading foreign exchange on Monday the euro just naturally a little movement against the U.S. dollar as investors await the outcome of a U.S. Federal Reserve meeting later this week.

Technically, today’s trading session on Tuesday (18/06), the pair euro dollar likely to move in a positive trend.

A stronger Euro is mainly expected to soon re-test the resistance at 1.3541 minimum and maximum 1.3659. Meanwhile, if the Euro was unable to break and stays below 1.3357 then another alternative scenario the Euro likely to test support at the 1.3228 area and 1.3117.

Gold prices closed down to $ 1,383.10

Gold prices ended closed down after the broker more waiting to be ahead of the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting which will take place this week.

Technically, gold at today’s trading session on Tuesday (18/06) potentially bearish, test returned negative trend, but prone to reversal. RSI indicator tends to re-test support channel and towards the oversold area, but Bollinger Band which began to widen, thus giving impetus to gold to the upside.

Estimated gold price immediately prior to test support at least in the area of ​​1356.12 and re-test the maximum level of 1340.66. However, if the price of gold is able to break and hold above 1384.90 then estimated the price of gold could potentially test the Resistance 1404.16 and 1421.66.

XULF Weekly Report 17 – 21 June

XULF Weekly Gold Report

Last week was another week of sideways movement for gold showing good resilience against strong US Retail Sales and Jobless Claims. On Tuesday it looked as though the bears were finally getting a grip of this market as they forced down through a couple of support levels in the $1370’s to print a low of $1365.32. The fundamentals for gold are certainly bearish but this is being countered technically by the bulls wanting to push a bear trend correction and this is creating an equilibrium just under the $1400 level. The widely used term ‘tapering’, referring to the anticipated stimulus slowdown, has negative connotations for gold as the process should only be conducted in the presence of a healthy US economy and it will strengthen the US dollar making gold more expensive in other currencies but simultaneously gold is in demand to some degree because of the uncertainty of how the economies and financial markets will react when the tapering begins. However the Fed may continue with the bond buying for longer than expected and only withdraw when there are signs of inflation which would be ideal for gold as the removal of one catalyst will be replaced by another. Therefore the outlook for the rest of the year will be largely influenced by the presence of three factors; stimulus, uncertainty and inflation and taking into account these environments never seem to be far away gold should put up a good fight in the long term.

The weekly chart shows that gold could be close to deciding which way it wants to move from here and break out the $1350 to $1420 range. I have referred to the momentum indicator in recent reports as it is appropriate and very useful given gold’s circumstances at present. The indicator is pushing against its own bearish trendline which could prove to be a pivotal moment. If we see a break on the momentum indicator this would be bullish as it would be characteristic of the current trend having weakened and that the market is poised to reverse. On the contrary if we see a bounce on the indicators trendline expect to see more declines as the bulls lose confidence in trying to revive this once beloved commodity.

In the short term the best way to trade this market, taking into account the lack of direction, is to buy at support and sell at resistance. Support and resistance levels are formed when a price level receives a higher volume of buying or selling and this is often displayed by long shadowed candlesticks especially hammers and shooting stars. Bear in mind these levels on this 1 hour chart are only minor support and resistances as they have only had one instance of higher volume but nonetheless can be useful to capture a few dollars of profit. Look to sell at the yellow resistance and buy around the green support lines but be mindful of any news that may be moving price towards these levels because if the move is backed by news we could see price knock down these levels. If price approaches either of these levels in an absence of news and economic numbers then there is a stronger case for applying this tactic.

Important economic releases to watch out for this week include the German ZEW survey and US Inflation data on Tuesday. On Wednesday there is a German 10 year bond auction that will garner close attention and affect EUR/USD and at 19:00 GMT the FOMC express their views on the US economy and will give more clues as to when the tapering may begin or under what circumstances they will begin to act. There is German and US manufacturing along with US Home sales data Thursday and on Friday Bank of Japan’s Governor Kuroda speaks at a press conference.

XULF Report 17/06/2013

XULF Report

Just as a broken music record repeats the same line over and over again I’m going to repeat much of the same analysis from last week as the market remains range bound. The focus this week is on the FOMC’s press conference where traders will be attentive listening for clues as to when the Fed intends to wind down asset purchases and which conditions warrant the slowdown. Gold is really battling against the bearish setting of improving US growth, the prospect of reducing stimulus and low inflation and is showing great tenacity to be holding levels just under $1400. Often when bad news fails to push a market any further down it is a sign the market is ready for recovery however there have been a few occasions since April’s fall when that spark quickly faded therefore it looks like gold needs more than a technical correction.

While the market remains in an indecisive mode and trades around its new found equilibrium around $1390 look to trade at short term support and resistance levels. Simply buy at green support and sell at yellow resistance lines to steal a few dollars of profit. When using this tactic be very mindful of scheduled economic data and press conferences that can catch out the amateur trader and always use a stop loss. The main data due out today is the Empire State Manufacturing Index at 13:30 GMT which will further insight into America’s manufacturing sector and clues on the health of the economy.

Market Analysis Monday 17th of June

ANALYSIS 17-06-2013

Negative sentiment Marak; Nikkei Hit Back

Japanese stocks in trading today seems to have decreased significantly (17/06). Nikkei index is still in negative territory after opening fell 1 percent this morning. Investors looked again attacked negative sentiment following the decline in trading on Wall Street last weekend.

Technically, the index in the trading session today, Monday (17/06) likely to weaken, test negative trends, the impact of Wall Street. On the bearish engulfing formation M15 chart gives an opportunity for the index to move downside. However, the volume is likely to increase, an early indication of a bullish index. In addition, RSI, on the M15 chart, is in the oversold area, cue upside.

Expected, the index tested the first support level ie 11397 and 10716. If it fails at 12 435, then the next index is expected to tend to retest the resistance level of 13113 and continued up to the possibility of being in the 13770 area.

USD / JPY: Dollar Yen Down Limited, Support 93.97 | Focus G8 Meetings

In trading on Friday, the opening price of USD / JPY at 95.59. The movement of this currency pair experienced a sharp decline in the range, preceded strengthening to peak at 95.75 level and then pulled back up to the basic level of 93.97. Closing price at 94.14, marked with a bearish candle.

Technically, the trading session today, Monday (17/06), the dollar yen pair has a chance to move in a negative trend.

Weakening Yen primarily expected soon reexamine the minimum support at 92.14 and 90.80 maximum. Meanwhile, if the Yen is able to break and hold above 94.56, then another alternative scenario the chance to test Resistance Yen’s in the area of ​​96.17 and 97.67.

Prediction Gold Prices Up or Down?

Gold futures rose as a government report showed wholesale prices rose in May for the first three months, driving up the demand for the precious metal as a means of hedging tackle inflation.

Technically, gold at today’s trading session, Monday (17/06) potential reversal, tested positive trend, but prone to profit taking. Indicator RSI resistance likely to re-test the bullish channel and into the area, but the Bollinger Bands are starting to shrink, thus giving impetus to gold to the downside.

Estimated gold price immediately prior to test resistance at least in the area of ​​1418.43 and re-test the maximum level of 1435.23. However, if the gold price could not break and stays below 1390.05 then estimated the price of gold has the potential to test Support the 1369.26 and 1350.06.

Jalatama Loco London (XULF) Report 13/06/2013

XULF Report
Gold staged an impressive recovery yesterday reaching a high of $1394.64 attributed to a falling US Dollar against the Japanese Yen and the Euro. Due to the rapid gains of USD/JPY this year we are seeing a strong correction which has prevented gold from declining at the rate we witnessed in April and stabilize somewhat. Although the dollar should eventually begin to resume its bull trend as the Fed starts to wind down stimulus and more money flows from emerging markets into US Treasuries as investors seek out the right balance of safety and returns. The main news today will be the US Retail Sales and Jobless Claims 13:30 GMT although given the lack of trend in the Retail Sales this number is unlikely to cause any great shakes.

Taking a technical perspective to predict gold’s movement in the short term is rather difficult due to the volatility, mainly ascribed to the USD/JPY, which has resulted in any trend having a very short lifespan. Stimulus tapering, slowing Chinese growth and a substantial USD/JPY correction are having conflicting effects on gold meaning its lacking any assertive direction. One thing worth pointing out is the price convergence on the daily chart that illustrates the opposing forces via a triangle pattern. Since April’s fall the trading range for gold is becoming increasingly tighter manifested by the triangle and a breakout could dictate the direction for the following weeks or even months. A push up towards $1420 again would break gold out of the triangle and generate momentum for surpassing the $1423.90 high achieved 6th June. A drop below $1345 would mean the bears have the upper hand and have the confidence to break down support of $1321 which was the low of the year.