XULF Report – 2/7

Gold’s bounce continued

XULF Report

Gold’s bounce continued yesterday supported by manufacturing data from Europe, Great Britain and the US helping it reach $1262 which was the long target level yesterday in my Weekly Gold Report. Italy and Spain showed refreshing improvements in their manufacturing sector signalling Europe could be slowly turning a corner and this benefitted commodity price across the board.

In Monday’s Weekly Gold Report I focused on the 4 hour chart to discover where this bounce would find resistance. Price crossing up through the Ichimoku Kijun Sen line was a bullish signal but as expected the 38.2% Fib Retracement level at $1261 has provided resistance. As I write price is testing for a second time so short term the market is kind of at a crossroads deciding on whether to break or bounce again. Any bearish candlesticks around resistance $1261/62 is a good time to sell with low risk and on the contrary long bodied bullish candlesticks which have penetrated this level will be a good time to buy. On a break price could have a rally but be aware it will likely find some resistance as price intersects with the Ichimoku clouds.

Economic data today is rather light but it’s worth being mindful of the Spanish Unemployment Change 08:00 GMT, UK Construction PMI at 09:30 GMT and US Factory Orders at 15:00 GMT especially now after yesterday’s positive data as the market will be examining data even closer.

XULF Weekly Report 1/7 – 5/7

Exciting week for gold

Weekly XULF Report

A series of good economic data from the US caused gold to drop even more last week opening at $1299.64 and closing down $67 at $1232.97. It was always going to be an interesting week with market participants eagerly awaiting data that could materialise Ben Bernanke’s intentions stated at the FOMC press conference the previous week. The Fed Chairman has expressed the plan to begin tapering down the bond buying within a few months if data continues to paint a picture of a strengthening economy and last week delivered a set of strong data spanning across housing, consumer confidence, spending, jobs and durable goods bringing that plan closer to action. Stocks and Treasuries have declined since the FOMC conference on 19th June but gold has been hurt the most as the yellow metal’s fragile position is being compounded by low inflation and may have further to drop according to its correlation to the CPI figure. The gold to CPI ratio historical average is 3.4 to 1 however the current ratio is 5.3 to 1 meaning it is still overvalued and that there could be further declines to come.

Traders looking to dip their toe for a bounce will be motivated by gold having a fight back Friday and completing a bullish engulfing candlestick. There are reports that gold miners are cutting back on production with the price at these lower levels which should help gold to some extent in the short term. This morning the Stochastic and the RSI have generated buy signals with is more evidence we could see a bounce.

The 4 hour chart is an interesting timeframe to analyse given gold’s technical situation and apologies for the chart looking confusing but I’m using the Ichimoku indicator that consists of a few different parts. The Ichimoku indicator has recently signalled a buy by crossing the blue Kijun Sen line from beneath which acts in a similar way to a moving average. Since the crossover this morning there has been a spate of volatility but now price has penetrated we could see further inclines. A feasible long target is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $1261 or until price interacts with the Ichimoku cloud. Before risking a buy it would be prudent to watch how the latest 4 hour candlestick prints for signs of whether price will continue the bounce or resume its bearish trend. The main events this week fall later in the week and are the Bank of Japan press conference where Governor Kuroda will be speaking and the ECB press conference on Thursday followed by the all-important US Non-Farms on Friday. Economic data is being even more scrutinized than usual now the Fed’s intentions are quite clear therefore we could have a volatile and exciting week for gold.

Market Analysis Thursday 27th of June

Gold yesterday touched the lowest level

Strengthening Thin End Successfully Kospi Index Bearish Trend

South Korean shares for trading on Wednesday ended an increase. As well as trading in South Korean stock markets caused by the increase in the volume of stock purchases due to the conducive trade in Asian stock markets after the rise in U.S. stocks overnight. Aggressive investors are back in the hunt for shares of exporters.

Technically, the index in the trading session today, Thursday (27/06) is likely to strengthen, test positive trend. On the bullish hammer formation M30 chart gives an opportunity for the index to move upside. However, the volume is likely to increase, as well as an early indication of bullish index. In addition, RSI, on the M30 chart, is in the oversold area, cue upside.

Expected, the index tested the first resistance level of 250.36 and 254.05. If it fails at 245.55, then the next index is expected to tend to retest the 241.90 support level and continue up the possibility of being in the 238.37 area.

Euro Burdened By Draghi Policy Attitudes

The euro slumped to a 3-week lows versus the U.S. dollar after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi highlighted the risk of slowing growth in the Euro zone and ensure monetary policy will remain accommodative.

Technically, the trading session today, Thursday (27/06), the pair euro dollar likely to move in a negative trend.

The weakening Euro is mainly expected to immediately reexamine the minimum support at 1.2837 and 1.2699 maximum. Meanwhile, if the euro is able to break and hold above 1.3025, then another alternative scenario the chance to test Euro Resistance at 1.3147 and 1.3262 area.

Worst Performance Gold In 1st Quarter

Gold yesterday touched the lowest level of the last was three years ago, and to the worst record in the quarter decreased, due to the strong dollar, the potential improvement in U.S. economic data, strengthening of global stock markets, and lack of physical demand for gold. In the second quarter, gold has dropped about 23%, the worst performance of gold in a single quarter since 1968 according to Reuters. Goldman Sachs and HSBC also cut its outlook for the gold price this year-end and year-end 2014.

Technically, gold at today’s trading session on Thursday (27/06) potentially bearish, test returned negative trend, but prone to reversal. RSI indicator tends to re-test support channel and towards the oversold area, but Bollinger Band which began to widen, thus giving impetus to gold to the upside.

Estimated gold price immediately prior to test support at least in the area of ​​1205.88 and re-test the maximum level of 1182.18. However, if the price of gold is able to break and hold above 1238.55 then estimated the price of gold could potentially test the Resistance 1261.93 and 1285.27.

XULF Report – 26/06

Gold has not reacted well

XULF Report

Equity markets had been recently reacting negatively to strong US data as it implies the Fed will kick-start their stimulus exit plan into gear although yesterday saw a different and more refreshing response to such data. US Durable Goods Orders, New Home Sales and Consumer Confidence were all better than expected and showed a strengthening US economy and investors gave a moderately positive reply which could be early signs that investors can cope with the concept of stimulus withdrawal. Gold however has not reacted well. It was mentioned in yesterday’s report that this week’s data will be closely scrutinized to see whether the Fed’s intention will materialise and the latest data from the US means it is getting closer and closer.

As I write gold is still tumbling smashing through Friday’s $1269.51 low and now traders should look to trade with the trend and execute shorts on pullbacks to Fibonacci levels and/or execute as price makes new lows. Well done if you are currently in this downtrend but if you are considering the best time to exit and cash in profits either wait for a strong bullish hammer with the shadow twice as long as the body and loner than the prior candlestick. This will signal a reversal and offer a good opportunity to exit and also give traders looking to enter long. If a bullish hammer doesn’t print watch out for a higher lows on a shorter timeframe which can indicate the current trend has exhausted itself and ready to recover somewhat. Trying to buy before candlestick confirmation is like trying to a catch a falling knife so wait for a bullish hammer or higher lows showing short term trend change.

If you have missed this decline wait for price to pullback and intersect with the yellow bearish trend line shown on this 5 minute chart. If it bounces sell and if price breaks the yellow line we could see a small retracement. The horizontal red lines show today’s potential resistance levels so again look to short if price approaches them levels. On summary definitely look for shorts rather than long trades because the absence of support until we move below $1200 means the market could easily keep dropping.

Metal suffer worst week since April – Market Analysis Monday 24th of June

Hang Seng Index ended down, Bearish Not Ended

Hong Kong stock exchange for trading days last week suffered impairment recorded. Exchange closed again weakened due to negative sentiment that has raised fears of the U.S. economy post the plan on Fed statement will lift economic stimulus policy.

Technically, the index on the trading session today, Monday (24/06) chance to weaken, test negative trends, browse Wall Street. On the H1 chart bearish engulfing formation provides an opportunity for the index to move downside. However, the volume tends to rise, early indications bulish index. In addition, RSI, on the H1 chart, selling in saturated areas, signal upside.

Partly, the index test in advance Support level ie 19 038 and 18 454. If they fail at 19 899, then the index is estimated to tend to test further back resistance level that is 20 532 and the possibility of being extended to 21 240 in the area.

EUR / USD: Euro Drops Further, Support 1.3095 | EU Data Focus

In Friday trading yesterday, the opening price of EUR / USD at 1.3221. Movement of this currency pair experienced pretty sharp corrective decline, the amplification precede the peak level Pulled 1.3250 then back to 1.3095 after the policy level through 1.3158 support (low, 20 June). Closing price at 1.3115, marked by a bearish candle.

Technically, today’s trading session on Monday (24/06), the pair euro dollar opportunity to move in a negative trend.

Predicted weakening of the Euro, especially immediately test back Support minimum and maximum that is at 1.2896 1.2774. And as, if able to break and last Euro above 1.3104, then the other alternative scenario ie Euro chance to test resistance at 1.3262 and 1.3413 area.

Gold Rebound In New York After the Fall to Lowest Since 2010

Gold rose from its lowest since 2010, with speculation that the collapse could trigger a purchase. Metal suffer worst week since April after Federal Reserve chairman Ben S Bernanke said the central bank could hold stimulusnya.

Technically, gold at today’s trading session, Monday (24/06) reversal potential, tested positive trend, but prone to profit taking. RSI indicators tend to re-test resistance bullish channel and head area, but Bollinger band began to shrink, giving impetus to gold to the downside.

Chance of gold price immediately prior to test resistance at least in the area and re-test 1327.45 maximum level of 1345.82. But if the price of gold can not afford to break and survive under 1294.00 then predicted the gold price potentially testing Support ie 1273.63 and 1254.63.

Market Analysis Tuesday 18th of June

ANALYSIS 18-06-2013

Kospi worry about Global Economy

Kospi fell as widespread concerns over global economic growth outlook. G-8 confirms outlook for the global economy remains weak despite slowdown risk has been reduced.

Technically, the index in the trading session today, Tuesday (18/06) likely to weaken, test negative trends, the impact of Wall Street. On the M30 chart bearish engulfing berformasi provide opportunities for the index to move downside. However, the volume is likely to increase, an early indication of bullish index. In addition, RSI, on the M30 chart, is in the oversold area, cue upside.

Expected, the index tested the first support level ie 241.16 and 238.37. If it fails at 245.55, then the next index is expected to tend to retest the 248.66 resistance level and continue up the possibility of being in the 251.55 area.

Stock Trading Session duration in Europe, Euro Steady Against U.S. Dollar

Trading foreign exchange on Monday the euro just naturally a little movement against the U.S. dollar as investors await the outcome of a U.S. Federal Reserve meeting later this week.

Technically, today’s trading session on Tuesday (18/06), the pair euro dollar likely to move in a positive trend.

A stronger Euro is mainly expected to soon re-test the resistance at 1.3541 minimum and maximum 1.3659. Meanwhile, if the Euro was unable to break and stays below 1.3357 then another alternative scenario the Euro likely to test support at the 1.3228 area and 1.3117.

Gold prices closed down to $ 1,383.10

Gold prices ended closed down after the broker more waiting to be ahead of the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting which will take place this week.

Technically, gold at today’s trading session on Tuesday (18/06) potentially bearish, test returned negative trend, but prone to reversal. RSI indicator tends to re-test support channel and towards the oversold area, but Bollinger Band which began to widen, thus giving impetus to gold to the upside.

Estimated gold price immediately prior to test support at least in the area of ​​1356.12 and re-test the maximum level of 1340.66. However, if the price of gold is able to break and hold above 1384.90 then estimated the price of gold could potentially test the Resistance 1404.16 and 1421.66.

XULF Report 17/06/2013

XULF Report

Just as a broken music record repeats the same line over and over again I’m going to repeat much of the same analysis from last week as the market remains range bound. The focus this week is on the FOMC’s press conference where traders will be attentive listening for clues as to when the Fed intends to wind down asset purchases and which conditions warrant the slowdown. Gold is really battling against the bearish setting of improving US growth, the prospect of reducing stimulus and low inflation and is showing great tenacity to be holding levels just under $1400. Often when bad news fails to push a market any further down it is a sign the market is ready for recovery however there have been a few occasions since April’s fall when that spark quickly faded therefore it looks like gold needs more than a technical correction.

While the market remains in an indecisive mode and trades around its new found equilibrium around $1390 look to trade at short term support and resistance levels. Simply buy at green support and sell at yellow resistance lines to steal a few dollars of profit. When using this tactic be very mindful of scheduled economic data and press conferences that can catch out the amateur trader and always use a stop loss. The main data due out today is the Empire State Manufacturing Index at 13:30 GMT which will further insight into America’s manufacturing sector and clues on the health of the economy.

Market Analysis Monday 17th of June

ANALYSIS 17-06-2013

Negative sentiment Marak; Nikkei Hit Back

Japanese stocks in trading today seems to have decreased significantly (17/06). Nikkei index is still in negative territory after opening fell 1 percent this morning. Investors looked again attacked negative sentiment following the decline in trading on Wall Street last weekend.

Technically, the index in the trading session today, Monday (17/06) likely to weaken, test negative trends, the impact of Wall Street. On the bearish engulfing formation M15 chart gives an opportunity for the index to move downside. However, the volume is likely to increase, an early indication of a bullish index. In addition, RSI, on the M15 chart, is in the oversold area, cue upside.

Expected, the index tested the first support level ie 11397 and 10716. If it fails at 12 435, then the next index is expected to tend to retest the resistance level of 13113 and continued up to the possibility of being in the 13770 area.

USD / JPY: Dollar Yen Down Limited, Support 93.97 | Focus G8 Meetings

In trading on Friday, the opening price of USD / JPY at 95.59. The movement of this currency pair experienced a sharp decline in the range, preceded strengthening to peak at 95.75 level and then pulled back up to the basic level of 93.97. Closing price at 94.14, marked with a bearish candle.

Technically, the trading session today, Monday (17/06), the dollar yen pair has a chance to move in a negative trend.

Weakening Yen primarily expected soon reexamine the minimum support at 92.14 and 90.80 maximum. Meanwhile, if the Yen is able to break and hold above 94.56, then another alternative scenario the chance to test Resistance Yen’s in the area of ​​96.17 and 97.67.

Prediction Gold Prices Up or Down?

Gold futures rose as a government report showed wholesale prices rose in May for the first three months, driving up the demand for the precious metal as a means of hedging tackle inflation.

Technically, gold at today’s trading session, Monday (17/06) potential reversal, tested positive trend, but prone to profit taking. Indicator RSI resistance likely to re-test the bullish channel and into the area, but the Bollinger Bands are starting to shrink, thus giving impetus to gold to the downside.

Estimated gold price immediately prior to test resistance at least in the area of ​​1418.43 and re-test the maximum level of 1435.23. However, if the gold price could not break and stays below 1390.05 then estimated the price of gold has the potential to test Support the 1369.26 and 1350.06.

Jalatama Loco London (XULF) Report 14/06/2013

Gold continues to show resilience taking into account the positive Non-Farms last Friday and now better than expected US Retail Sales and Jobless Claims. Yes there has been some selling off the back of these numbers but there is also clearly steady demand preventing the bears from dominating the market. As I mentioned yesterday there a various opposing forces impacting gold at present including the forthcoming withdrawal of stimulus and global growth concerns which is bearish whilst at the same time the uncertainty surrounding global growth is supporting gold at these levels.

Technically gold is the same as yesterday, and that is range bound with any trends ending rather quickly. Therefore traders who cannot wait until we have a breakout out of the triangle pattern shown on the daily chart yesterday can look for intra-day opportunities buying at support and selling at resistance levels. The 15 minute chart shows recent support and resistance levels that may provide a bounce opportunity to profit. Look to sell around the yellow resistance and buy around green support. It is paramount to assess whether there is any change in fundamentals or news headlines that is driving or dropping price before executing and try to incorporate bearish candlesticks to confirm the reversal.

This may mean you miss out on a couple dollars of extra profit but the confirmation is worthwhile forfeiting the extra profit. It is recommended not to use this strategy during economic releases so be aware of the US Producer Price Index at 13:30 GMT and Consumer Sentiment 14:55 GMT

Market Analysis Friday 14th of June

Kospi ended down 1.4%; 1870 Support
Kospi index ended down by 1.4% at 1882.73 as a sharp decline in the Nikkei have an impact on Asian markets; 1870 will be the support level, which analysts say will be an important technical level.

Technically, the index in the trading session today, Friday (14/06) likely to weaken, test negative trends, the impact of Wall Street. On the bearish engulfing formation M15 chart gives an opportunity for the index to move downside. However, the volume is likely to increase, an early indication of a bullish index. In addition, RSI, on the M15 chart, is in the oversold area, cue upside.

Expected, the index tested the first support level ie 243.61 and 242.39. If it fails at 245.55, then the next index is expected to tend to retest the 246.86 resistance level and continue up the possibility of being in the 248.00 area.

Yen Gains Further Ready
According to Robert Sinche, global strategist at Pierpont Securities Holdings, the yen will strengthen further, due to Japanese investors were disappointed the BoJ monetary easing policies. “The BoJ hopes to buy government bonds will encourage Japanese investors to move capital into overseas markets, which would weaken the yen, but it did not happen” said Robert

Technically, today’s trading session on Friday (14/06), the dollar yen pair has a chance to move in a positive trend.
A stronger yen primarily expected soon reexamine the minimal resistance at 97.67 and 99.17 maximum. Meanwhile, if the Yen was able to break and stays below 95.61 then another alternative scenario that is likely to test support Yen’s in the area of ​​93.84 and 92.45

Gold down 1% as U.S. Jobs Data
Gold and silver fell 1 percent after fewer Americans are filling out an application for unemployment benefits than expected last week, easing pressure on the Federal Reserve to maintain stimulus measures to boost the economy

Technically, gold at today’s trading session on Friday (14/06) potentially bearish, test returned negative trend, but prone to reversal. RSI indicator tends to re-test support channel and towards the oversold area, but Bollinger Band which began to widen, thus giving impetus to gold to the upside.
Estimated gold price immediately prior to test support at least in the area of ​​1357.86 and re-test the maximum level of 1338.07. However, if the price of gold is able to break and hold above 1385.35 then estimated the price of gold could potentially test the Resistance 1406.44 and 1425.03.

Jalatama Loco London (XULF) Report 13/06/2013

XULF Report
Gold staged an impressive recovery yesterday reaching a high of $1394.64 attributed to a falling US Dollar against the Japanese Yen and the Euro. Due to the rapid gains of USD/JPY this year we are seeing a strong correction which has prevented gold from declining at the rate we witnessed in April and stabilize somewhat. Although the dollar should eventually begin to resume its bull trend as the Fed starts to wind down stimulus and more money flows from emerging markets into US Treasuries as investors seek out the right balance of safety and returns. The main news today will be the US Retail Sales and Jobless Claims 13:30 GMT although given the lack of trend in the Retail Sales this number is unlikely to cause any great shakes.

Taking a technical perspective to predict gold’s movement in the short term is rather difficult due to the volatility, mainly ascribed to the USD/JPY, which has resulted in any trend having a very short lifespan. Stimulus tapering, slowing Chinese growth and a substantial USD/JPY correction are having conflicting effects on gold meaning its lacking any assertive direction. One thing worth pointing out is the price convergence on the daily chart that illustrates the opposing forces via a triangle pattern. Since April’s fall the trading range for gold is becoming increasingly tighter manifested by the triangle and a breakout could dictate the direction for the following weeks or even months. A push up towards $1420 again would break gold out of the triangle and generate momentum for surpassing the $1423.90 high achieved 6th June. A drop below $1345 would mean the bears have the upper hand and have the confidence to break down support of $1321 which was the low of the year.

Market Analysis Thursday 13th of June

Nikkei index plummeted; Global Stock Market profanity
In trading on the Japanese stock market Wednesday morning that decline more sharply. Japanese stocks under selling pressure amid plunging global stock exchanges. A stronger yen and disappointment that the BOJ did not provide better policies to address the volatility in the bond market make market participants decide to exit the market.

Technically, the index in the trading session today, Thursday (13/06) likely to weaken, test negative trends, the impact of Wall Street. At the H4 chart bearish engulfing formation provides opportunities for the index to move downside. However, the volume is likely to increase, an early indication of a bullish index. In addition, RSI, on the H4 chart, is in the oversold area, cue upside.

Expected, the index tested the first support level ie 12024 and 11495. If it fails in 12790, we then estimated the index tends to retest the resistance level of 13341 and continued up to the possibility of being in the 13824 area.

USD / JPY: Dollar Yen Low Approach, Focus on U.S. Data
In trading Wednesday, the opening price of USD / JPY at 96.04. The movement of this currency pair experienced a sharp decline in the range, preceded strengthening to peak at 97.01 level and then pulled back up to ground level after passing support 95.13 95.58 (low, June 11). Closing price at 95.85, marked with a doji candle.

Technically, the trading session today, Thursday (13/06), the dollar yen pair has a chance to move in a negative trend.

Weakening Yen primarily expected soon reexamine the minimum support at 92.86 and 91.58 maximum. Meanwhile, if the Yen is able to break and hold above 95.34, then another alternative scenario the chance to test Resistance Yen’s in the area of ​​96.95 and 98.39.

Gold prices ended up, BOJ policy influence fluctuations
Gold prices in futures trading in the U.S. session today ended up in early trading Wednesday after briefly weakened back where traders expect the Fed will continue its quantitative policy to not make meaningful changes.

Technically, gold in the trading session today, Thursday (13/06) potential reversal, tested positive trend, but prone to profit taking. Indicator RSI resistance likely to re-test the bullish channel and into the area, but the Bollinger Bands are starting to shrink, thus giving impetus to gold to the downside.

Estimated gold price immediately prior to test resistance at least in the area of ​​1413.65 and re-test the maximum level of 1432.79. However, if the gold price could not break and stays below 1385.25 then estimated the price of gold has the potential to test Support the 1363.25 and 1345.11.

Jalatama Loco London (XULF) Report 12/06/2013

XULF Report
Gold got wrapped up in the broad scale sell-off yesterday triggered by the Bank of Japan unveiling no additional stimulus measures and concerns about the legality of the ECB’s OMT programme. The precious metal has been well known as a good hedge against inflation and currency devaluations hence a withdrawal of money supply tends to cause investors to move away and go back to currencies. If the German Court Ruling over the constitutionality of the ECB’s unlimited bond purchases pledge is concluded as illegal then this could unravel all of Mario Draghi’s resolute hard work to lower bond yields of highly indebted nations.

The ECB hasn’t needed to activate the bond buying of its Outright Monetary Transactions programme but the pledge to make unlimited purchases has instilled confidence in the Euro which could be eradicated if the pledge isn’t supported by law. This will weaken EUR/USD and put heavy pressure on gold. Conversely a success for the ECB should give investors more appetite for gold. The poor Chinese trade data at the weekend is also dampening the mood for gold after further evidence points to slowing growth from the metals second largest importer.

The 15 minute chart displays how price has recouped much of yesterday’s losses to find resistance at the bearish trendline that began forming on Monday. Given the general descent since Friday this pullback towards this bearish trend offers a good opportunity to short with a tight stop. Remember that the weekly chart strongly indicates with the two side-by-side shooting stars that the market will finish the week down therefore most factors are bearish in the short term. A break of this trendline may produce an incline of a few dollars but bear in mind we need fundamentals somewhat to deliver gains of any substance. If the ECB wins its court case that may be the impetus gold needs.

Market Analysis Wednesday 12th of June

Nikkei Concerned About Strengthening Yen

Nikkei fell as investors worried about the impact of the strengthening of the Japanese yen against the performance of exporters in the international market. USD / JPY rose 3% last night and had touched 95.58 near its strongest level in two months.

Technically, the index in the trading session today, Wednesday (12/06) likely to weaken, test negative trends, the impact of Wall Street. On the bearish engulfing formation M15 chart gives an opportunity for the index to move downside. However, the volume is likely to increase, an early indication of a bullish index. In addition, RSI, on the M15 chart, is in the oversold area, cue upside.

Expected, the index tested the first support level ie 12164 and 11634. If it fails in 13060, we then estimated the index tends to retest the resistance level of 13658 and continued up to the possibility of being in the 14264 area.

ECB’s Asmussen statement Rescuing Euro

The euro managed to continue its rally against the U.S. dollar after comments one member of the board of the European Central Bank, Joerg Asmussen.

Technically, today’s trading session on Wednesday (12/06), the pair euro dollar likely to move in a positive trend.

A stronger Euro is mainly expected to soon re-test the resistance at 1.3449 minimum and maximum 1.3545. Meanwhile, if the Euro was unable to break and stays below 1.3309 then another alternative scenario the Euro likely to test support at the 1.3196 area and 1.3091.

Bury the BoJ Stimulus anxiety Gold

Gold closed down less than 1% on Tuesday, after touching a low level in nearly six weeks, as the lack of a new economic stimulus from the Bank of Japan sparked fears that other central banks may also withdraw its support, eroding the appeal of gold as a means of inflation hedge. Gold fell as much as 1.4% after the Bank of Japan refrained the new policy, arguing that the bond market has stabilized.

Technically, gold at today’s trading session on Wednesday (12/06) potentially bearish, test returned negative trend, but prone to reversal. RSI indicator tends to re-test support channel and towards the oversold area, but Bollinger Band which began to widen, thus giving impetus to gold to the upside.

Estimated gold price immediately prior to test support at least in the area of ​​1347.45 and re-test the maximum level of 1329.15. However, if the price of gold is able to break and hold above 1376.10 then estimated the price of gold could potentially test the Resistance 1398.78 and 1417.08.

Jalatama Loco London (XULF) Report 11/06/2013

XULF Report
Yesterday gold showed signs of the downtrend continuing reaching a low of $1375.70 before bouncing back into the $1380’s range as FOMC Member James Bullard said low inflation will allow the Fed to maintain the bond buying if conditions warranted it. In a press conference today the Bank of Japan announced the level of its stimulus remains unchanged and that they were more upbeat about the economy which caused a little volatility but the market has since calmed.

In the short term the outlook is rather neutral and it looks like there will be many ups and downs around the $1380’s but according to two consecutive shooting stars of the weekly chart it is probable price will finish towards the lower $1370’s by the week end. Most indicators are middle-of-the-road on shorter timeframes but traders looking for opportunities can look for a bounce or break of today’s bearish trendline. Consider shorting if price bounces printing a shooting star and consider a long trade once price has penetrated the trendline and then made a higher low.

Short targets remain the same at $1373 and $1354 which are previous support levels that received an influx of buy orders during May. If price breaks the bearish intra-day trendline be mindful not to be greedy given the recent turn of bearishness.
There could be some headline news disseminating from the first day of the German court ruling regarding the constitutionality of the ECB’s monetary operations therefore keep an eye on your newsfeeds and trade carefully.