XULF Report – 3/7

Expecting a continuation?

XULF Report

Gold’s bounce has either ran out of steam or is pausing for breath reaching a high of $1267 yesterday and has since retreated due to some profit taking. Gold bulls will be trimming down positions ahead of the ADP Non-Farms today and the all-encompassing Non-Farms on Friday as the market majority are expecting a continuation of the positive data last week. Since gold’s drop to $1179 last week we have seen a shift in market dynamics as miners cut back on production and an increase in demand in the physical market has sparked a substantial bear market rally. Barricks, the largest gold miner, has now announced it is delaying the opening of its Pascua-Lama mine till 2016 one of the reasons being the drop in gold prices therefore supply squeezes like this should offer gold a bottom support.

Yesterday price did manage to penetrate the $1261 level but the breakout only produced a mere $6 profit and the bears claimed control at $1267 before price found resistance at the Ichimoku clouds. Right now it is difficult to predict the next move on a short term basis because it is dependent on whether we are in a pullback of a rally that began last Friday or that the next leg of the long term bearish trend is assuming itself. Therefore exercise patience and wait for a pattern or strong trendline to emerge before taking a risk. In summary this 4 hour chart is manifesting some profit taking, indecision and cautiousness ahead of the Non-Farm numbers. Often during such market conditions triangle patterns can appear so keep a close eye on any developments.

Some factors for traders to be aware of at present are; the USD/JPY has crossed up above the 100 level again which isn’t good news for gold but if the bulls really do believe this market is oversold then they can overcome dollar strength because, although it may come as a surprise, the dollar accounts for approximately 15% of gold fluctuations meaning both markets can actually move in the same direction. China are currently fighting off the dark cloud of a credit crunch which could have opposing effects on gold subject to the amount of uncertainty it generates. Spain and Italy submit their services industry PMI at 08:15 and 08:45 GMT today which could give investors evidence to add to Monday’s data that there is a bottom in sight for the Eurozone’s economy. At 13:15 the US reveal the private Non-Farms which, as always, will act as a precursor to the US Labour Departments payroll number on Friday.

XULF Weekly Report 1/7 – 5/7

Exciting week for gold

Weekly XULF Report

A series of good economic data from the US caused gold to drop even more last week opening at $1299.64 and closing down $67 at $1232.97. It was always going to be an interesting week with market participants eagerly awaiting data that could materialise Ben Bernanke’s intentions stated at the FOMC press conference the previous week. The Fed Chairman has expressed the plan to begin tapering down the bond buying within a few months if data continues to paint a picture of a strengthening economy and last week delivered a set of strong data spanning across housing, consumer confidence, spending, jobs and durable goods bringing that plan closer to action. Stocks and Treasuries have declined since the FOMC conference on 19th June but gold has been hurt the most as the yellow metal’s fragile position is being compounded by low inflation and may have further to drop according to its correlation to the CPI figure. The gold to CPI ratio historical average is 3.4 to 1 however the current ratio is 5.3 to 1 meaning it is still overvalued and that there could be further declines to come.

Traders looking to dip their toe for a bounce will be motivated by gold having a fight back Friday and completing a bullish engulfing candlestick. There are reports that gold miners are cutting back on production with the price at these lower levels which should help gold to some extent in the short term. This morning the Stochastic and the RSI have generated buy signals with is more evidence we could see a bounce.

The 4 hour chart is an interesting timeframe to analyse given gold’s technical situation and apologies for the chart looking confusing but I’m using the Ichimoku indicator that consists of a few different parts. The Ichimoku indicator has recently signalled a buy by crossing the blue Kijun Sen line from beneath which acts in a similar way to a moving average. Since the crossover this morning there has been a spate of volatility but now price has penetrated we could see further inclines. A feasible long target is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $1261 or until price interacts with the Ichimoku cloud. Before risking a buy it would be prudent to watch how the latest 4 hour candlestick prints for signs of whether price will continue the bounce or resume its bearish trend. The main events this week fall later in the week and are the Bank of Japan press conference where Governor Kuroda will be speaking and the ECB press conference on Thursday followed by the all-important US Non-Farms on Friday. Economic data is being even more scrutinized than usual now the Fed’s intentions are quite clear therefore we could have a volatile and exciting week for gold.

Market Analysis Monday 1st of July

Signs of rising demand

ANALYSIS 01-08-2013

Conditions Rally Still Happening in South Korean stocks

Positive trend occurred again in South Korea stock market. In trading Friday, the South Korean market was back in bullish trend due to the impact of a rise in U.S. stocks overnight is driven by the effect of lowering the jobless claims data for last week amounted to 7 thousand.

Technically, the index in the trading session today, Monday (01/07) is likely to strengthen, test positive trend. At the H4 chart informa bullish hammer gives an opportunity for the index to move upside. However, the volume is likely to increase, as well as an early indication of a bullish index. In addition, RSI, on the H4 chart, is in the oversold area, cue upside.

Expected, the index tested the first resistance level of 260.67 and 273.73. If it fails at 232.03, then the next index is expected to tend to retest the 232.03 support level and continue up the possibility of being in the 221.07 area.

Pound Down Under Analyst Predictions

Sterling in trade week is generally observed plainly shows weakening trend against the U.S. dollar. Trading the currency pair GBP / USD is in the range of 1.5386 after opening at the beginning of the trading week was down about -177 pips or about -1.15% and closed at around 1.5209.

Technically, the trading session today, Monday (01/07), Strerling couple of dollars likely to move in a negative trend.

Weakening Strerling primarily expected soon retest the support at 1.5025 minimum and maximum 1.4919. Meanwhile, if Strerling able to break and hold above 1.5204, then another alternative scenario Strerling the chance to test the existing Resistance 1.5313 and 1.5425 area.

Gold Rebound from Low 34 Months

Spot gold prices rebounded from 34-month lows, the biggest jump in a month, as signs of rising demand for jewelry, coins and bullion after the precious metal is headed to its biggest quarterly fall in at least 93 years old.

Technically, gold at today’s trading session, Monday (01/07) potential reversal, tested positive trend, but prone to profit taking. Indicator RSI resistance likely to re-test the bullish channel and into the area, but the Bollinger Bands are starting to shrink, thus giving impetus to gold to the downside.

Estimated gold price immediately prior to test resistance at least in the area of ​​1267.33 and re-test the maximum level of 1295.91. However, if the gold price could not break and stays below 1229.35 then estimated the price of gold has the potential to test Support the 1196.35 and 1167.78.

XULF Report – 28/06

Fall continues

XULF Report

The fall continues but there could be a bottom in sight now some gold miners are cutting back on production as it becomes less economically viable to continue output under $1200. Rising real interest rates attributed to speculators betting on the Federal Reserve raising rates during 2014 has contributed to gold being shunned to the sideline. Some Fed officials commented that the speculators actions doesn’t align with Ben Bernanke’s assessment of the economy last week and his language in regards to the Fed’s next move being data dependent and flexible. However this speculation has helped the bears force gold down.

This weekly chart shows gold’s bull run since October 2008 and since hitting a peak of $1921 in September 2011 gold has been on a general retracement. An important potential support level is $1159 which is the 61.8% fib retracement level which is incidentally a previous support. Price did drop as low as $1179 and is currently hovering around $1200 any traders looking to buy should consider placing stop losses under $1159 as long, medium and short term traders will all be keeping an eye on interaction with this level.

The 4 hour chart is hinting of a reversal now it’s printed a strong bullish hammer that looks to be perfect as the shadow is multiple times longer than the body and it is equal size to the bearish marubozu two candlesticks prior. More confirmation can be gleaned from the Stochastic which has generated a buy signal but bear in mind the RSI is still below 30. Therefore there is a probability a small bounce could occur however there is resistance forming at $1207 and bulls will be nervous by the fact price hasn’t yet bounced off the $1159 Fib level yet so trade cautiously and don’t be greedy if going long. A break up through this morning’s resistance at 1207 should trigger buying demand but bulls will find more resistance around $1213 where price could intersect with the current medium term bearish trend.

Market Analysis Friday 28th of June

1.5 Percent Loss?

Hang Seng Index ended strengthened Follow Asian Stock More

Hong Kong stock exchange yesterday ended the day Thursday. Strengthening sufficiently constant movement distinction exchange trading condition Thursday remembering yesterday covered by positive sentiment coming from a majority of strengthening Asian bourses and U.S. stock exchange yesterday. Investors also quite passionate in doing the action and purchase of shares, especially banking stocks and fares.

Technically, the index on the trading session today, Friday (28/06) have the opportunity to strengthen, test positive trend. On the H1 chart bullish hammer formation provides an opportunity for the index to move upside. However, the volume tends to increase, as well as an early indication bulish index. In addition, RSI, on the H1 chart, selling in saturated areas, signal upside.

Partly, the index test prior resistance level that is 21 481 and 22155. If failed in the 20549, the estimated index tend to test further back level Support ie 19 877 and the possibility of being extended to 19 202 in the area.

Consumer sentiment shore Euro Rebound

Yielding euro rebounded against the U.S. Dollar concomitant improvement in economic confidence the 17-nation bloc that transcends economists predicted. Executive and consumer sentiment index rose to 91.3 in June from 89.5 in May, according to the European Commission in Brussels, the better-than-estimated 90.4. Euro also benefited by U.S. data, which tends to erode the reduction speculation the Federal Reserve’s monetary stimulus in the near future.

Technically, today’s trading session on Friday (28/06), the pair euro dollar opportunity to move in a positive trend.

Strengthening of the Euro, especially predicted back soon test resistance at 1.3205 ie the minimum and maximum of 1.3328. And as, if the Euro is not able to break below 1.3036 and then endure another alternative scenario ie the Euro had the opportunity to test Support at 1.2896 and 1.2773 area.

Gold Closes Down By 1.5 Percent Loss

Gold futures on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange fell on Thursday (Friday morning hrs), extending the decline to 34-month low, as U.S. economic data exceed analyst estimates, scraping metal attractiveness as a store of value.

Technically, gold trading session today on Friday (28/03) potentially bearish, test returned negative trend, but prone to reversal. RSI indicators tend to re-test Support channel oversold area and heading, but Bollinger Bands are beginning to widen, thus providing the impetus for gold for upside.

Chance of gold price immediately prior to test Support at least in the area of ​​re-test 1139.10 and 1106.72 maximum level. But if the price of gold is able to break above 1191.50 and defending the gold price estimated potential test resistance ie 1227.15 and 1261.93.

Market Analysis Thursday 27th of June

Gold yesterday touched the lowest level

Strengthening Thin End Successfully Kospi Index Bearish Trend

South Korean shares for trading on Wednesday ended an increase. As well as trading in South Korean stock markets caused by the increase in the volume of stock purchases due to the conducive trade in Asian stock markets after the rise in U.S. stocks overnight. Aggressive investors are back in the hunt for shares of exporters.

Technically, the index in the trading session today, Thursday (27/06) is likely to strengthen, test positive trend. On the bullish hammer formation M30 chart gives an opportunity for the index to move upside. However, the volume is likely to increase, as well as an early indication of bullish index. In addition, RSI, on the M30 chart, is in the oversold area, cue upside.

Expected, the index tested the first resistance level of 250.36 and 254.05. If it fails at 245.55, then the next index is expected to tend to retest the 241.90 support level and continue up the possibility of being in the 238.37 area.

Euro Burdened By Draghi Policy Attitudes

The euro slumped to a 3-week lows versus the U.S. dollar after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi highlighted the risk of slowing growth in the Euro zone and ensure monetary policy will remain accommodative.

Technically, the trading session today, Thursday (27/06), the pair euro dollar likely to move in a negative trend.

The weakening Euro is mainly expected to immediately reexamine the minimum support at 1.2837 and 1.2699 maximum. Meanwhile, if the euro is able to break and hold above 1.3025, then another alternative scenario the chance to test Euro Resistance at 1.3147 and 1.3262 area.

Worst Performance Gold In 1st Quarter

Gold yesterday touched the lowest level of the last was three years ago, and to the worst record in the quarter decreased, due to the strong dollar, the potential improvement in U.S. economic data, strengthening of global stock markets, and lack of physical demand for gold. In the second quarter, gold has dropped about 23%, the worst performance of gold in a single quarter since 1968 according to Reuters. Goldman Sachs and HSBC also cut its outlook for the gold price this year-end and year-end 2014.

Technically, gold at today’s trading session on Thursday (27/06) potentially bearish, test returned negative trend, but prone to reversal. RSI indicator tends to re-test support channel and towards the oversold area, but Bollinger Band which began to widen, thus giving impetus to gold to the upside.

Estimated gold price immediately prior to test support at least in the area of ​​1205.88 and re-test the maximum level of 1182.18. However, if the price of gold is able to break and hold above 1238.55 then estimated the price of gold could potentially test the Resistance 1261.93 and 1285.27.

XULF Report – 26/06

Gold has not reacted well

XULF Report

Equity markets had been recently reacting negatively to strong US data as it implies the Fed will kick-start their stimulus exit plan into gear although yesterday saw a different and more refreshing response to such data. US Durable Goods Orders, New Home Sales and Consumer Confidence were all better than expected and showed a strengthening US economy and investors gave a moderately positive reply which could be early signs that investors can cope with the concept of stimulus withdrawal. Gold however has not reacted well. It was mentioned in yesterday’s report that this week’s data will be closely scrutinized to see whether the Fed’s intention will materialise and the latest data from the US means it is getting closer and closer.

As I write gold is still tumbling smashing through Friday’s $1269.51 low and now traders should look to trade with the trend and execute shorts on pullbacks to Fibonacci levels and/or execute as price makes new lows. Well done if you are currently in this downtrend but if you are considering the best time to exit and cash in profits either wait for a strong bullish hammer with the shadow twice as long as the body and loner than the prior candlestick. This will signal a reversal and offer a good opportunity to exit and also give traders looking to enter long. If a bullish hammer doesn’t print watch out for a higher lows on a shorter timeframe which can indicate the current trend has exhausted itself and ready to recover somewhat. Trying to buy before candlestick confirmation is like trying to a catch a falling knife so wait for a bullish hammer or higher lows showing short term trend change.

If you have missed this decline wait for price to pullback and intersect with the yellow bearish trend line shown on this 5 minute chart. If it bounces sell and if price breaks the yellow line we could see a small retracement. The horizontal red lines show today’s potential resistance levels so again look to short if price approaches them levels. On summary definitely look for shorts rather than long trades because the absence of support until we move below $1200 means the market could easily keep dropping.

Market Analysis Wednesday 26th of June

Positive economic data to increase market expectations

Nikkei fizzled, China Economic Concerns

Japanese stock exchange to trade Tuesday closed yesterday weakened by fears will shape China’s banking sector in line with the stress that the central bank should immediately remove policy stimulus in order to maintain China’s economy amid the economic slowdown predicted for this year. The need for the availability of a stimulus policy is not much different from the Japanese economy despite the Bank of Japan stated there can be no stimulus in the short term.

Technically, the index on the trading session today, Wednesday (26/06) chance to weaken, test negative trends, browse Wall Street. On the bearish engulfing formation M15 chart provides an opportunity for the index to move downside. However, the volume tends to rise, early indications bulish index. In addition, RSI, on the M15 chart, selling in saturated areas, signal upside.

Partly, the index test in advance Support level ie 12 991 and 12 752. If they fail at 13 335, then the index is estimated to tend to test further back resistance level that is 13 615 and the possibility of being extended to 13 839 in the area.

Draghi comments Muffled Disability Rehabilitation Euro

Euro slips to 5th session streak against the U.S. Dollar on Tuesday yesterday’s post European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said that the condition of the euro area economy still requires monetary stimulus policy.

Technically, the trading session today, Wednesday (26/06), the pair euro dollar opportunity to move in a negative trend.

Predicted weakening of the Euro, especially immediately test back Support minimum and maximum that is at 1.3027 1.2986. And as, if able to break and last Euro above 1.3081, then the other alternative scenario ie Euro chance to test resistance at 1.3129 and 1.3169 area.

Gold prices ended down, embedded U.S. economic data

Gold trading in the U.S. session begins with the rising price of gold, but then followed by further sales action, following positive U.S. economic data to increase market expectations that the U.S. Central Bank will begin to soften its monetary economic policy that departs on disability stimulate the economy, create Dollars The U.S. currency strengthened on the other and dropping government obligations.

Technically, today’s gold trading session this Wednesday (26/06) potentially bearish, test returned negative trend, but prone to reversal. RSI indicators tend to re-test Support channel oversold area and heading, but Bollinger Bands are beginning to widen, thus providing the impetus for gold for upside.

Chance of gold price immediately prior to test Support at least in the area of ​​re-test 1238.97 and 1211.18 maximum level. But if the price of gold is able to break above 1275.15 and defending the gold price estimated potential test resistance ie 1302.34 and 1326.65.

25/06 – XULF Report

Deliberating bulls created a new range for gold

General profit taking and cautiousness from deliberating bulls created a new range for gold of $1276 to $1390 for the most part of yesterday. Gold did show signs of beginning another downward leg approaching Friday’s low of $1269.51 but the bears kept encountering demand in the $1275 to $80 region. In the equity world a broad scale risk-off sentiment emerged after reports that China’s tightening credit conditions are beginning to take the toll on developers and manufacturers as money market rates are currently double the average for the year. This combined with the realisation the Fed is ready to begin tapering if the US economy continues to improve is bringing the widely anticipated correction for stocks.

My weekly analysis yesterday predicted a small bounce for gold after Friday printed a harami and the RSI returned from oversold however this play seems to be losing its appeal as it fails to hold ground in the $1290’s. Due to the lower highs visible on the 1 hour chart since Friday’s rally to $1302 the short term outlook is now more bearish. Bears should consider shorting if price spikes to the resistance area displayed by the green rectangle or when price moves below the support area of $1269.50 to $1275.

Now it has dawned on investors that the Fed is poised to act this week’s economic numbers will be as important as ever as the market awaits evidence to put the Fed’s exit plan into action. Tonight we have the US Durable Goods Orders, New Home Sales and Consumer Confidence which could force gold lower out of this interim range.

Market Analysis Tuesday 25th of June

Ben Bernanke concerning policy stimulus assessed is unclear

Korean Stock Market Hit Bottom Up to 1800 Points

Lower back movement occurred in South Korea stock market where negative pressure is obtained from the weakening of the majority of stock markets in Asia. Broadly speaking, the Asian stock market sentiment was hit by a concern for the U.S. economy as the potential decrease in the amount of U.S. economic stimulus package.

Technically, the index in the trading session today, Tuesday (25/06) likely to weaken, test negative trends, the impact of Wall Street. At the H4 chart bearish engulfing formation provides opportunities for the index to move downside. However, the volume is likely to increase, an early indication of bullish index. In addition, RSI, on the H4 chart, is in the oversold area, cue upside.

Expected, the index tested the first support level ie 236.97 and 230.55. If it fails at 245.55, then the next index is expected to tend to retest the 251.32 resistance level and continue up the possibility of being in the 256.42 area.

USDJPY soared Related Comments BoJ Iwata

Pairing USDJPY soared 30 points in a while due to BoJ Iwata’s comments stating that the central bank still has several options of monetary policy.

Technically, the trading session today, Tuesday (25/06), the dollar yen pair has a chance to move in a negative trend.

Weakening Yen primarily expected soon reexamine the minimum support at 95.56 and 94.32 maximum. Meanwhile, if the Yen is able to break and hold above 97.55, then another alternative scenario the chance to test Resistance Yen’s in the area of ​​98.84 and 100.04.

Gold prices Makin dimmed, Negative Fundamentals

Gold prices to trade tonight again decreased. As with other futures investments trading, precious metals commodity prices are also overwhelmed by the pressure coming from the U.S. economy. Statement from Fed Governor Ben Bernanke concerning policy stimulus assessed is unclear at the moment. However nominal 85 billion dollars which will be designated as the purchase of the notes is expected to be realized in the next year.

Technically, gold at today’s trading session on Tuesday (25/06) potentially bearish, test returned negative trend, but prone to reversal. RSI indicator tends to re-test support channel and towards the oversold area, but Bollinger Band which began to widen, thus giving impetus to gold to the upside.

Estimated gold price immediately prior to test support at least in the area of ​​1241.00 and re-test the maximum level of 1212.01. However, if the price of gold is able to break and hold above 1281.70 then estimated the price of gold could potentially test the Resistance 1310.78 and 1337.61.

Gold priced dropped to the lowest since September 2010 – 24/06 – 28/06 XULF Weekly Report

Gold tumbled badly last week after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the exiting of the bond buying will begin if the current trend of economic development continues and a break below two support levels of $1338 and April’s low of $1321 exacerbated the drop. Priced dropped to $1269.51 which is the lowest since September 2010 before having a small bounce on Friday to as high as $1302.46. Bernanke’s language was similar to previous statements reiterating any slowdown will be data dependant and he refrained from giving specific timelines which makes gold’s decline feel a little overdone. However the culmination of a stimulus withdrawal getting nearer and low inflation are hitting gold hard and leaving investors little reason for holding the metal but if uncertainty is around the corner, maybe triggered by China’s slowdown or the Fed’s exit plan or both, then this may help gold fight back and limit the slide.

Due to gold’s multi-year bull market there aren’t many clear standout support levels to help a strong bounce. $1156 is the next potential support level established after a bull market pullback in May 2010 however this is not comforting for the bulls given we are about $140 away from that level. Therefore more declines are expected but this week looks like we may see a rebound before more another downward leg after Friday printed a bullish harami and the RSI has recovered to the 30 level. If the stochastic can cross back above 20 with a cross of the fast and slow lines this will add to the probability of a bounce and take into account that price is also trading on the outside of the lower Bollinger Band signalling a forthcoming correction. Target level will be the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level at $1315 which should deliver some resistance and if price can push pass it will find more resistance at previous support level $1321. Gold was range bound between $1338 and $1423 for over 4 weeks across May and June and any break to the upside or downside is likely to dictate sentiment for the rest of the year therefore longer term position traders should consider shorts after corrections. Of course things can change if the US economic recovery has setbacks and stimulus prevails however right now things are very bearish for gold over the long term.

This week holds a relatively busy economic agenda mainly centred on the US. On Tuesday we have New Home Sales, US House Prices and the UK’s inflation report that could indirectly affect gold by moving the GBP/USD pair. On Wednesday there is a final measure of US growth for the 1st quarter which is expected to be 2.4% so be ready to trade following any surprises there. On Thursday we have the US Weekly Jobless Claims and Pending Home Sales and Friday brings a bunch of data releases from Japan covering inflation, house prices, retail and industrial output.

Metal suffer worst week since April – Market Analysis Monday 24th of June

Hang Seng Index ended down, Bearish Not Ended

Hong Kong stock exchange for trading days last week suffered impairment recorded. Exchange closed again weakened due to negative sentiment that has raised fears of the U.S. economy post the plan on Fed statement will lift economic stimulus policy.

Technically, the index on the trading session today, Monday (24/06) chance to weaken, test negative trends, browse Wall Street. On the H1 chart bearish engulfing formation provides an opportunity for the index to move downside. However, the volume tends to rise, early indications bulish index. In addition, RSI, on the H1 chart, selling in saturated areas, signal upside.

Partly, the index test in advance Support level ie 19 038 and 18 454. If they fail at 19 899, then the index is estimated to tend to test further back resistance level that is 20 532 and the possibility of being extended to 21 240 in the area.

EUR / USD: Euro Drops Further, Support 1.3095 | EU Data Focus

In Friday trading yesterday, the opening price of EUR / USD at 1.3221. Movement of this currency pair experienced pretty sharp corrective decline, the amplification precede the peak level Pulled 1.3250 then back to 1.3095 after the policy level through 1.3158 support (low, 20 June). Closing price at 1.3115, marked by a bearish candle.

Technically, today’s trading session on Monday (24/06), the pair euro dollar opportunity to move in a negative trend.

Predicted weakening of the Euro, especially immediately test back Support minimum and maximum that is at 1.2896 1.2774. And as, if able to break and last Euro above 1.3104, then the other alternative scenario ie Euro chance to test resistance at 1.3262 and 1.3413 area.

Gold Rebound In New York After the Fall to Lowest Since 2010

Gold rose from its lowest since 2010, with speculation that the collapse could trigger a purchase. Metal suffer worst week since April after Federal Reserve chairman Ben S Bernanke said the central bank could hold stimulusnya.

Technically, gold at today’s trading session, Monday (24/06) reversal potential, tested positive trend, but prone to profit taking. RSI indicators tend to re-test resistance bullish channel and head area, but Bollinger band began to shrink, giving impetus to gold to the downside.

Chance of gold price immediately prior to test resistance at least in the area and re-test 1327.45 maximum level of 1345.82. But if the price of gold can not afford to break and survive under 1294.00 then predicted the gold price potentially testing Support ie 1273.63 and 1254.63.

Gold closed down more than 6% - Market Analysis Friday 21th of June

The Hang Seng Index Drops Nearly 3%

Hong Kong shares to trade on Thursday closed yesterday experienced a sharp decline. Exchanges are still declining and continue the negative trend due to pressure from fundamentals which investors prefer to sell stocks after the Fed’s decision last night that will reduce the nominal U.S. economic stimulus package.

Technically, the index in the trading session today, Friday (21/06) likely to weaken, test negative trends, the impact of Wall Street. On the bearish engulfing formation M15 chart gives an opportunity for the index to move downside. However, the volume is likely to increase, an early indication of a bullish index. In addition, RSI, on the M15 chart, is in the oversold area, cue upside.

Expected, the index tested the first support level ie 19803 and 19505. If it fails in 20285, we then estimated the index tends to retest the resistance level of 20 599 and continued until the area is likely to be 20 927.

EUR / USD: Euro Weakens, Support 1.3190

In trading Thursday, the opening price of EUR / USD at 1.3293. The movement of this currency pair natural corrective decline, at the start strengthening to a peak of 1.3299 and then pulled back up to ground level after passing support 1.3158 1.3174 (low, June 10).

Technically, the trading session today, Friday (21/06), the pair euro dollar likely to move in a negative trend.

The weakening Euro is mainly expected to immediately reexamine the minimum support at 1.3002 and 1.2872 maximum. Meanwhile, if the euro is able to break and hold above 1.3214, then another alternative scenario the chance to test Euro Resistance at 1.3359 and 1.3472 area.

Fed Signals From Ruin tapering Gold Prices

Gold closed down more than 6% after the price dropped to a low level in more than 2-1/2 years on Thursday, with investors sold gold after the Federal Reserve signaled plans to end the era of easing.

Technically, gold at today’s trading session on Friday (21/06) potentially bearish, test returned negative trend, but prone to reversal. RSI indicator tends to re-test support channel and towards the oversold area, but Bollinger Band which began to widen, thus giving impetus to gold to the upside.

Estimated gold price immediately prior to test support at least in the area of ​​1224.33 and re-test the maximum level of 1187.98. However, if the price of gold is able to break and hold above 1274.05 then estimated the price of gold could potentially test the Resistance 1316.42 and 1355.19.

Bearish trendline signalling downward motion is building again – XULF Report 20/06

XULF Report

After the dust has settled fundamentally speaking both equities and gold are in the same scenario as before Bernanke’s comments at the FOMC press conference as the central bank chief refrained from giving any specific schedule for slowing down bond purchases. Instead he alluded to the fact that a wind down will be data dependant. However his upbeat tone on the economy and mentioning that downside risks were diminishing means it is likely the tapering will begin later this year with the September policy meeting being a major focus. Gold dropped sharply from around $1374 to a low of $1339 in the early hours where buy orders accumulated around previous support of $1338 established in May. The sell-off was attributed to panic rather than substance as investors didn’t want to get caught out by a surprise statement by the Fed and Bernanke.

The momentum indicator has finally bounced off its bearish trendline signalling downward motion is building again and if price can test $1338 support again within the next 24 hours it is likely to give way to the bears. The important thing to consider when price retests support levels is whether price has been making lower highs because this manifest that the bears are happy to short the market at decreasingly lower prices. The lower highs actually form a descending triangle which is a powerful and rather reliable pattern. Zoom into shorter timeframes as price draws closer to support and look for lower highs. Price may bounce once or twice around $1338 but the chances of a breakthrough increase with lower highs and shorter intervals between support tests.

There is still a busy schedule ahead today with manufacturing PMI’s from Europe and US and Weekly Jobless Claims and Existing Home Sales to name a few so make sure you have your economic calendar ready to view.

Gold Falls 0.6% As Bernanke Statements Lift Dollar - Market Analysis Thursday 20th of June

Closed Hang Seng index plummeted 1.13%

Hong Kong shares to trading on Wednesday closed at significantly weakened position after the last two days and posted a successful market position raised above 21,000 basis points.

Technically, the index in the trading session today, Thursday (20/06) likely to weaken, test negative trends, the impact of Wall Street. On the bearish engulfing formation M15 chart gives an opportunity for the index to move downside. However, the volume is likely to increase, an early indication of a bullish index. In addition, RSI, on the M15 chart, is in the oversold area, cue upside.

Expected, the index tested the first support level ie 20470 and 20201. If it fails at 20 935, then the next index is expected to tend to retest the resistance level of 21224 and continued up to the possibility of being in the 21476 area.

Pulse Global Forex: Yen Down and USD Weakens

In trading Wednesday the Japanese yen appears to be still trying to continue its decline against the U.S. dollar. The yen declined amid speculation that Wednesday Governor Ben Bernanke Fed will provide more information about when the U.S. central bank will begin to reduce the amount of government bond buying program.

Technically, today’s trading session on Thursday (20/06), the dollar yen pair has a chance to move in a positive trend.

A stronger yen primarily expected soon reexamine the minimal resistance at 99.24 and 101.28 maximum. Meanwhile, if the Yen was able to break and stays below 96.43 then another alternative scenario that is likely to test support Yen’s in the area of ​​94.31 and 92.68.

 

Gold Falls 0.6% As Bernanke Statements Lift Dollar

Gold futures extend fall in electronic trading as the U.S. dollar strengthened after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told reporters that the central bank could begin to scale back purchases of government bonds earlier this year if needed with stronger economic data.

Technically, gold at today’s trading session on Thursday (20/06) potentially bearish, test returned negative trend, but prone to reversal. RSI indicator tends to re-test support channel and towards the oversold area, but Bollinger Band which began to widen, thus giving impetus to gold to the upside.

Estimated gold price immediately prior to test support at least in the area of ​​1316.85 and re-test the maximum level of 1297.10. However, if the price of gold is able to break and hold above 1346.05 then estimated the price of gold could potentially test the Resistance 1369.11 and 1386.95.

Market Analysis Tuesday 18th of June

ANALYSIS 18-06-2013

Kospi worry about Global Economy

Kospi fell as widespread concerns over global economic growth outlook. G-8 confirms outlook for the global economy remains weak despite slowdown risk has been reduced.

Technically, the index in the trading session today, Tuesday (18/06) likely to weaken, test negative trends, the impact of Wall Street. On the M30 chart bearish engulfing berformasi provide opportunities for the index to move downside. However, the volume is likely to increase, an early indication of bullish index. In addition, RSI, on the M30 chart, is in the oversold area, cue upside.

Expected, the index tested the first support level ie 241.16 and 238.37. If it fails at 245.55, then the next index is expected to tend to retest the 248.66 resistance level and continue up the possibility of being in the 251.55 area.

Stock Trading Session duration in Europe, Euro Steady Against U.S. Dollar

Trading foreign exchange on Monday the euro just naturally a little movement against the U.S. dollar as investors await the outcome of a U.S. Federal Reserve meeting later this week.

Technically, today’s trading session on Tuesday (18/06), the pair euro dollar likely to move in a positive trend.

A stronger Euro is mainly expected to soon re-test the resistance at 1.3541 minimum and maximum 1.3659. Meanwhile, if the Euro was unable to break and stays below 1.3357 then another alternative scenario the Euro likely to test support at the 1.3228 area and 1.3117.

Gold prices closed down to $ 1,383.10

Gold prices ended closed down after the broker more waiting to be ahead of the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting which will take place this week.

Technically, gold at today’s trading session on Tuesday (18/06) potentially bearish, test returned negative trend, but prone to reversal. RSI indicator tends to re-test support channel and towards the oversold area, but Bollinger Band which began to widen, thus giving impetus to gold to the upside.

Estimated gold price immediately prior to test support at least in the area of ​​1356.12 and re-test the maximum level of 1340.66. However, if the price of gold is able to break and hold above 1384.90 then estimated the price of gold could potentially test the Resistance 1404.16 and 1421.66.