XULF Report – 3/7

Expecting a continuation?

XULF Report

Gold’s bounce has either ran out of steam or is pausing for breath reaching a high of $1267 yesterday and has since retreated due to some profit taking. Gold bulls will be trimming down positions ahead of the ADP Non-Farms today and the all-encompassing Non-Farms on Friday as the market majority are expecting a continuation of the positive data last week. Since gold’s drop to $1179 last week we have seen a shift in market dynamics as miners cut back on production and an increase in demand in the physical market has sparked a substantial bear market rally. Barricks, the largest gold miner, has now announced it is delaying the opening of its Pascua-Lama mine till 2016 one of the reasons being the drop in gold prices therefore supply squeezes like this should offer gold a bottom support.

Yesterday price did manage to penetrate the $1261 level but the breakout only produced a mere $6 profit and the bears claimed control at $1267 before price found resistance at the Ichimoku clouds. Right now it is difficult to predict the next move on a short term basis because it is dependent on whether we are in a pullback of a rally that began last Friday or that the next leg of the long term bearish trend is assuming itself. Therefore exercise patience and wait for a pattern or strong trendline to emerge before taking a risk. In summary this 4 hour chart is manifesting some profit taking, indecision and cautiousness ahead of the Non-Farm numbers. Often during such market conditions triangle patterns can appear so keep a close eye on any developments.

Some factors for traders to be aware of at present are; the USD/JPY has crossed up above the 100 level again which isn’t good news for gold but if the bulls really do believe this market is oversold then they can overcome dollar strength because, although it may come as a surprise, the dollar accounts for approximately 15% of gold fluctuations meaning both markets can actually move in the same direction. China are currently fighting off the dark cloud of a credit crunch which could have opposing effects on gold subject to the amount of uncertainty it generates. Spain and Italy submit their services industry PMI at 08:15 and 08:45 GMT today which could give investors evidence to add to Monday’s data that there is a bottom in sight for the Eurozone’s economy. At 13:15 the US reveal the private Non-Farms which, as always, will act as a precursor to the US Labour Departments payroll number on Friday.

Market Analysis Monday 3rd of July

 Gold slips as a stronger dollar

ANALYSIS 03-07-2013

Post-Holiday, Hong Kong Exchanges Closed Down

Hong Kong shares to trading on Tuesday recorded a decline. Post-holiday trading yesterday, the Hong Kong stock market has become weaker due to a negative sentiment about the decline in China’s manufacturing sector data for the month of May.

Technically, the index in the trading session today, Wednesday (03/07) is likely to strengthen, test positive trend. On the M15 chart bullish hammer berformasi provide opportunities for the index to move upside. However, the volume is likely to increase, as well as an early indication of bullish index. In addition, RSI, on the M15 chart, is in the oversold area, cue upside.

Expected, the index tested the first resistance level of 20745 and 20793. If it fails at 20 660, then the index is expected to tend to test the next support level ie 20 599 back and continued up to the possibility of being in the area of ​​20 543.

Dollar Translucent Again Above Resistance Level

The dollar rose against various major currencies marked USDJPY pairing breakout above 100.00 level for the first time in the last month while the EURUSD testing 1.3000 psychological level in 5 consecutive days.

Technically, the trading session today, Wednesday (03/07), the pair euro dollar likely to move in a negative trend.

The weakening Euro is mainly expected to immediately reexamine the minimum support at 1.2852 and 1.2764 maximum. Meanwhile, if the euro is able to break and hold above 1.2970, then another alternative scenario the chance to test Euro Resistance at 1.3059 and 1.3147 area.

Gold Slips As A stronger dollar

Gold edged lower on Tuesday as the dollar strengthened and investors looking for further indications that the Federal Reserve may soon put an end to the U.S. stimulus program.

Technically, gold at today’s trading session on Wednesday (03/07) potentially bearish, test returned negative trend, but prone to reversal. RSI indicator tends to re-test support channel and towards the oversold area, but Bollinger Band which began to widen, thus giving impetus to gold to the upside.

Estimated gold price immediately prior to test support at least in the area of ​​1211.34 and re-test the maximum level of 1183.54. However, if the price of gold is able to break and hold above 1244.30 then estimated the price of gold could potentially test the Resistance 1273.01 and 1299.98.

XULF Report – 2/7

Gold’s bounce continued

XULF Report

Gold’s bounce continued yesterday supported by manufacturing data from Europe, Great Britain and the US helping it reach $1262 which was the long target level yesterday in my Weekly Gold Report. Italy and Spain showed refreshing improvements in their manufacturing sector signalling Europe could be slowly turning a corner and this benefitted commodity price across the board.

In Monday’s Weekly Gold Report I focused on the 4 hour chart to discover where this bounce would find resistance. Price crossing up through the Ichimoku Kijun Sen line was a bullish signal but as expected the 38.2% Fib Retracement level at $1261 has provided resistance. As I write price is testing for a second time so short term the market is kind of at a crossroads deciding on whether to break or bounce again. Any bearish candlesticks around resistance $1261/62 is a good time to sell with low risk and on the contrary long bodied bullish candlesticks which have penetrated this level will be a good time to buy. On a break price could have a rally but be aware it will likely find some resistance as price intersects with the Ichimoku clouds.

Economic data today is rather light but it’s worth being mindful of the Spanish Unemployment Change 08:00 GMT, UK Construction PMI at 09:30 GMT and US Factory Orders at 15:00 GMT especially now after yesterday’s positive data as the market will be examining data even closer.

Market Analysis Monday 2nd of July

Encouraging on physical demand

The Nikkei Continue Positive Trend 3 Days

Japanese shares for trading on Monday closed up. Encouragement of the impact of the depreciation of the yen against the U.S. dollar which is currently predicted at the level of 99.59 per U.S. dollar back into equities a key factor in addition to a report Monday on upbeat data Tankan manufacturing index for the month of May by 4 points, or higher compared with a previous prediction by 3 points.

Technically, the index in the trading session today, Tuesday (02/07) likely to weaken, test negative trends, the impact of Wall Street. On the bearish engulfing formation M15 chart gives an opportunity for the index to move downside. However, the volume is likely to increase, an early indication of a bullish index. In addition, RSI, on the M15 chart, is in the oversold area, cue upside.

Expected, the index tested the first support level ie 13 842 and 13 763. If it fails in 13970, we then estimated the index tends to retest the resistance level of 14024 and continued up to the possibility of being in the 14098 area.

The yen fell against the dollar

The yen fell against the dollar hit the lowest level that has never happened since the last three weeks, as the central bank’s Tankan data is released showing the level of large-scale manufacturing sector is optimistic in the second quarter and reached the highest level in the last 2 years.

Technically, today’s trading session on Tuesday (02/07), the dollar yen pair has a chance to move in a positive trend.

A stronger yen primarily expected soon reexamine the minimal resistance at 101.15 and 102.17 maximum. Meanwhile, if the Yen was able to break and stays below 99.54 then another alternative scenario that is likely to test support Yen’s in the area of ​​98.21 and 97.13.

Gold Turning Direction After Falling to Lowest Since 2010

Gold rose for a second day in New York on speculation falling to 34-month low and the biggest quarterly fall on record will encourage physical demand.

Technically, gold in the trading session today, Tuesday (02/07) potential reversal, tested positive trend, but prone to profit taking. Indicator RSI resistance likely to re-test the bullish channel and into the area, but the Bollinger Bands are starting to shrink, thus giving impetus to gold to the downside.

Estimated gold price immediately prior to test resistance at least in the area of ​​1263.29 and re-test the maximum level of 1267.93. However, if the gold price could not break and stays below 1257.05 then estimated the price of gold has the potential to test Support the 1251.97 and 1247.18.

XULF Weekly Report 1/7 – 5/7

Exciting week for gold

Weekly XULF Report

A series of good economic data from the US caused gold to drop even more last week opening at $1299.64 and closing down $67 at $1232.97. It was always going to be an interesting week with market participants eagerly awaiting data that could materialise Ben Bernanke’s intentions stated at the FOMC press conference the previous week. The Fed Chairman has expressed the plan to begin tapering down the bond buying within a few months if data continues to paint a picture of a strengthening economy and last week delivered a set of strong data spanning across housing, consumer confidence, spending, jobs and durable goods bringing that plan closer to action. Stocks and Treasuries have declined since the FOMC conference on 19th June but gold has been hurt the most as the yellow metal’s fragile position is being compounded by low inflation and may have further to drop according to its correlation to the CPI figure. The gold to CPI ratio historical average is 3.4 to 1 however the current ratio is 5.3 to 1 meaning it is still overvalued and that there could be further declines to come.

Traders looking to dip their toe for a bounce will be motivated by gold having a fight back Friday and completing a bullish engulfing candlestick. There are reports that gold miners are cutting back on production with the price at these lower levels which should help gold to some extent in the short term. This morning the Stochastic and the RSI have generated buy signals with is more evidence we could see a bounce.

The 4 hour chart is an interesting timeframe to analyse given gold’s technical situation and apologies for the chart looking confusing but I’m using the Ichimoku indicator that consists of a few different parts. The Ichimoku indicator has recently signalled a buy by crossing the blue Kijun Sen line from beneath which acts in a similar way to a moving average. Since the crossover this morning there has been a spate of volatility but now price has penetrated we could see further inclines. A feasible long target is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $1261 or until price interacts with the Ichimoku cloud. Before risking a buy it would be prudent to watch how the latest 4 hour candlestick prints for signs of whether price will continue the bounce or resume its bearish trend. The main events this week fall later in the week and are the Bank of Japan press conference where Governor Kuroda will be speaking and the ECB press conference on Thursday followed by the all-important US Non-Farms on Friday. Economic data is being even more scrutinized than usual now the Fed’s intentions are quite clear therefore we could have a volatile and exciting week for gold.

Market Analysis Monday 1st of July

Signs of rising demand

ANALYSIS 01-08-2013

Conditions Rally Still Happening in South Korean stocks

Positive trend occurred again in South Korea stock market. In trading Friday, the South Korean market was back in bullish trend due to the impact of a rise in U.S. stocks overnight is driven by the effect of lowering the jobless claims data for last week amounted to 7 thousand.

Technically, the index in the trading session today, Monday (01/07) is likely to strengthen, test positive trend. At the H4 chart informa bullish hammer gives an opportunity for the index to move upside. However, the volume is likely to increase, as well as an early indication of a bullish index. In addition, RSI, on the H4 chart, is in the oversold area, cue upside.

Expected, the index tested the first resistance level of 260.67 and 273.73. If it fails at 232.03, then the next index is expected to tend to retest the 232.03 support level and continue up the possibility of being in the 221.07 area.

Pound Down Under Analyst Predictions

Sterling in trade week is generally observed plainly shows weakening trend against the U.S. dollar. Trading the currency pair GBP / USD is in the range of 1.5386 after opening at the beginning of the trading week was down about -177 pips or about -1.15% and closed at around 1.5209.

Technically, the trading session today, Monday (01/07), Strerling couple of dollars likely to move in a negative trend.

Weakening Strerling primarily expected soon retest the support at 1.5025 minimum and maximum 1.4919. Meanwhile, if Strerling able to break and hold above 1.5204, then another alternative scenario Strerling the chance to test the existing Resistance 1.5313 and 1.5425 area.

Gold Rebound from Low 34 Months

Spot gold prices rebounded from 34-month lows, the biggest jump in a month, as signs of rising demand for jewelry, coins and bullion after the precious metal is headed to its biggest quarterly fall in at least 93 years old.

Technically, gold at today’s trading session, Monday (01/07) potential reversal, tested positive trend, but prone to profit taking. Indicator RSI resistance likely to re-test the bullish channel and into the area, but the Bollinger Bands are starting to shrink, thus giving impetus to gold to the downside.

Estimated gold price immediately prior to test resistance at least in the area of ​​1267.33 and re-test the maximum level of 1295.91. However, if the gold price could not break and stays below 1229.35 then estimated the price of gold has the potential to test Support the 1196.35 and 1167.78.

Market Analysis Friday 28th of June

1.5 Percent Loss?

Hang Seng Index ended strengthened Follow Asian Stock More

Hong Kong stock exchange yesterday ended the day Thursday. Strengthening sufficiently constant movement distinction exchange trading condition Thursday remembering yesterday covered by positive sentiment coming from a majority of strengthening Asian bourses and U.S. stock exchange yesterday. Investors also quite passionate in doing the action and purchase of shares, especially banking stocks and fares.

Technically, the index on the trading session today, Friday (28/06) have the opportunity to strengthen, test positive trend. On the H1 chart bullish hammer formation provides an opportunity for the index to move upside. However, the volume tends to increase, as well as an early indication bulish index. In addition, RSI, on the H1 chart, selling in saturated areas, signal upside.

Partly, the index test prior resistance level that is 21 481 and 22155. If failed in the 20549, the estimated index tend to test further back level Support ie 19 877 and the possibility of being extended to 19 202 in the area.

Consumer sentiment shore Euro Rebound

Yielding euro rebounded against the U.S. Dollar concomitant improvement in economic confidence the 17-nation bloc that transcends economists predicted. Executive and consumer sentiment index rose to 91.3 in June from 89.5 in May, according to the European Commission in Brussels, the better-than-estimated 90.4. Euro also benefited by U.S. data, which tends to erode the reduction speculation the Federal Reserve’s monetary stimulus in the near future.

Technically, today’s trading session on Friday (28/06), the pair euro dollar opportunity to move in a positive trend.

Strengthening of the Euro, especially predicted back soon test resistance at 1.3205 ie the minimum and maximum of 1.3328. And as, if the Euro is not able to break below 1.3036 and then endure another alternative scenario ie the Euro had the opportunity to test Support at 1.2896 and 1.2773 area.

Gold Closes Down By 1.5 Percent Loss

Gold futures on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange fell on Thursday (Friday morning hrs), extending the decline to 34-month low, as U.S. economic data exceed analyst estimates, scraping metal attractiveness as a store of value.

Technically, gold trading session today on Friday (28/03) potentially bearish, test returned negative trend, but prone to reversal. RSI indicators tend to re-test Support channel oversold area and heading, but Bollinger Bands are beginning to widen, thus providing the impetus for gold for upside.

Chance of gold price immediately prior to test Support at least in the area of ​​re-test 1139.10 and 1106.72 maximum level. But if the price of gold is able to break above 1191.50 and defending the gold price estimated potential test resistance ie 1227.15 and 1261.93.

Market Analysis Thursday 27th of June

Gold yesterday touched the lowest level

Strengthening Thin End Successfully Kospi Index Bearish Trend

South Korean shares for trading on Wednesday ended an increase. As well as trading in South Korean stock markets caused by the increase in the volume of stock purchases due to the conducive trade in Asian stock markets after the rise in U.S. stocks overnight. Aggressive investors are back in the hunt for shares of exporters.

Technically, the index in the trading session today, Thursday (27/06) is likely to strengthen, test positive trend. On the bullish hammer formation M30 chart gives an opportunity for the index to move upside. However, the volume is likely to increase, as well as an early indication of bullish index. In addition, RSI, on the M30 chart, is in the oversold area, cue upside.

Expected, the index tested the first resistance level of 250.36 and 254.05. If it fails at 245.55, then the next index is expected to tend to retest the 241.90 support level and continue up the possibility of being in the 238.37 area.

Euro Burdened By Draghi Policy Attitudes

The euro slumped to a 3-week lows versus the U.S. dollar after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi highlighted the risk of slowing growth in the Euro zone and ensure monetary policy will remain accommodative.

Technically, the trading session today, Thursday (27/06), the pair euro dollar likely to move in a negative trend.

The weakening Euro is mainly expected to immediately reexamine the minimum support at 1.2837 and 1.2699 maximum. Meanwhile, if the euro is able to break and hold above 1.3025, then another alternative scenario the chance to test Euro Resistance at 1.3147 and 1.3262 area.

Worst Performance Gold In 1st Quarter

Gold yesterday touched the lowest level of the last was three years ago, and to the worst record in the quarter decreased, due to the strong dollar, the potential improvement in U.S. economic data, strengthening of global stock markets, and lack of physical demand for gold. In the second quarter, gold has dropped about 23%, the worst performance of gold in a single quarter since 1968 according to Reuters. Goldman Sachs and HSBC also cut its outlook for the gold price this year-end and year-end 2014.

Technically, gold at today’s trading session on Thursday (27/06) potentially bearish, test returned negative trend, but prone to reversal. RSI indicator tends to re-test support channel and towards the oversold area, but Bollinger Band which began to widen, thus giving impetus to gold to the upside.

Estimated gold price immediately prior to test support at least in the area of ​​1205.88 and re-test the maximum level of 1182.18. However, if the price of gold is able to break and hold above 1238.55 then estimated the price of gold could potentially test the Resistance 1261.93 and 1285.27.

XULF Report – 26/06

Gold has not reacted well

XULF Report

Equity markets had been recently reacting negatively to strong US data as it implies the Fed will kick-start their stimulus exit plan into gear although yesterday saw a different and more refreshing response to such data. US Durable Goods Orders, New Home Sales and Consumer Confidence were all better than expected and showed a strengthening US economy and investors gave a moderately positive reply which could be early signs that investors can cope with the concept of stimulus withdrawal. Gold however has not reacted well. It was mentioned in yesterday’s report that this week’s data will be closely scrutinized to see whether the Fed’s intention will materialise and the latest data from the US means it is getting closer and closer.

As I write gold is still tumbling smashing through Friday’s $1269.51 low and now traders should look to trade with the trend and execute shorts on pullbacks to Fibonacci levels and/or execute as price makes new lows. Well done if you are currently in this downtrend but if you are considering the best time to exit and cash in profits either wait for a strong bullish hammer with the shadow twice as long as the body and loner than the prior candlestick. This will signal a reversal and offer a good opportunity to exit and also give traders looking to enter long. If a bullish hammer doesn’t print watch out for a higher lows on a shorter timeframe which can indicate the current trend has exhausted itself and ready to recover somewhat. Trying to buy before candlestick confirmation is like trying to a catch a falling knife so wait for a bullish hammer or higher lows showing short term trend change.

If you have missed this decline wait for price to pullback and intersect with the yellow bearish trend line shown on this 5 minute chart. If it bounces sell and if price breaks the yellow line we could see a small retracement. The horizontal red lines show today’s potential resistance levels so again look to short if price approaches them levels. On summary definitely look for shorts rather than long trades because the absence of support until we move below $1200 means the market could easily keep dropping.

Market Analysis Wednesday 26th of June

Positive economic data to increase market expectations

Nikkei fizzled, China Economic Concerns

Japanese stock exchange to trade Tuesday closed yesterday weakened by fears will shape China’s banking sector in line with the stress that the central bank should immediately remove policy stimulus in order to maintain China’s economy amid the economic slowdown predicted for this year. The need for the availability of a stimulus policy is not much different from the Japanese economy despite the Bank of Japan stated there can be no stimulus in the short term.

Technically, the index on the trading session today, Wednesday (26/06) chance to weaken, test negative trends, browse Wall Street. On the bearish engulfing formation M15 chart provides an opportunity for the index to move downside. However, the volume tends to rise, early indications bulish index. In addition, RSI, on the M15 chart, selling in saturated areas, signal upside.

Partly, the index test in advance Support level ie 12 991 and 12 752. If they fail at 13 335, then the index is estimated to tend to test further back resistance level that is 13 615 and the possibility of being extended to 13 839 in the area.

Draghi comments Muffled Disability Rehabilitation Euro

Euro slips to 5th session streak against the U.S. Dollar on Tuesday yesterday’s post European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said that the condition of the euro area economy still requires monetary stimulus policy.

Technically, the trading session today, Wednesday (26/06), the pair euro dollar opportunity to move in a negative trend.

Predicted weakening of the Euro, especially immediately test back Support minimum and maximum that is at 1.3027 1.2986. And as, if able to break and last Euro above 1.3081, then the other alternative scenario ie Euro chance to test resistance at 1.3129 and 1.3169 area.

Gold prices ended down, embedded U.S. economic data

Gold trading in the U.S. session begins with the rising price of gold, but then followed by further sales action, following positive U.S. economic data to increase market expectations that the U.S. Central Bank will begin to soften its monetary economic policy that departs on disability stimulate the economy, create Dollars The U.S. currency strengthened on the other and dropping government obligations.

Technically, today’s gold trading session this Wednesday (26/06) potentially bearish, test returned negative trend, but prone to reversal. RSI indicators tend to re-test Support channel oversold area and heading, but Bollinger Bands are beginning to widen, thus providing the impetus for gold for upside.

Chance of gold price immediately prior to test Support at least in the area of ​​re-test 1238.97 and 1211.18 maximum level. But if the price of gold is able to break above 1275.15 and defending the gold price estimated potential test resistance ie 1302.34 and 1326.65.

25/06 – XULF Report

Deliberating bulls created a new range for gold

General profit taking and cautiousness from deliberating bulls created a new range for gold of $1276 to $1390 for the most part of yesterday. Gold did show signs of beginning another downward leg approaching Friday’s low of $1269.51 but the bears kept encountering demand in the $1275 to $80 region. In the equity world a broad scale risk-off sentiment emerged after reports that China’s tightening credit conditions are beginning to take the toll on developers and manufacturers as money market rates are currently double the average for the year. This combined with the realisation the Fed is ready to begin tapering if the US economy continues to improve is bringing the widely anticipated correction for stocks.

My weekly analysis yesterday predicted a small bounce for gold after Friday printed a harami and the RSI returned from oversold however this play seems to be losing its appeal as it fails to hold ground in the $1290’s. Due to the lower highs visible on the 1 hour chart since Friday’s rally to $1302 the short term outlook is now more bearish. Bears should consider shorting if price spikes to the resistance area displayed by the green rectangle or when price moves below the support area of $1269.50 to $1275.

Now it has dawned on investors that the Fed is poised to act this week’s economic numbers will be as important as ever as the market awaits evidence to put the Fed’s exit plan into action. Tonight we have the US Durable Goods Orders, New Home Sales and Consumer Confidence which could force gold lower out of this interim range.

Market Analysis Tuesday 25th of June

Ben Bernanke concerning policy stimulus assessed is unclear

Korean Stock Market Hit Bottom Up to 1800 Points

Lower back movement occurred in South Korea stock market where negative pressure is obtained from the weakening of the majority of stock markets in Asia. Broadly speaking, the Asian stock market sentiment was hit by a concern for the U.S. economy as the potential decrease in the amount of U.S. economic stimulus package.

Technically, the index in the trading session today, Tuesday (25/06) likely to weaken, test negative trends, the impact of Wall Street. At the H4 chart bearish engulfing formation provides opportunities for the index to move downside. However, the volume is likely to increase, an early indication of bullish index. In addition, RSI, on the H4 chart, is in the oversold area, cue upside.

Expected, the index tested the first support level ie 236.97 and 230.55. If it fails at 245.55, then the next index is expected to tend to retest the 251.32 resistance level and continue up the possibility of being in the 256.42 area.

USDJPY soared Related Comments BoJ Iwata

Pairing USDJPY soared 30 points in a while due to BoJ Iwata’s comments stating that the central bank still has several options of monetary policy.

Technically, the trading session today, Tuesday (25/06), the dollar yen pair has a chance to move in a negative trend.

Weakening Yen primarily expected soon reexamine the minimum support at 95.56 and 94.32 maximum. Meanwhile, if the Yen is able to break and hold above 97.55, then another alternative scenario the chance to test Resistance Yen’s in the area of ​​98.84 and 100.04.

Gold prices Makin dimmed, Negative Fundamentals

Gold prices to trade tonight again decreased. As with other futures investments trading, precious metals commodity prices are also overwhelmed by the pressure coming from the U.S. economy. Statement from Fed Governor Ben Bernanke concerning policy stimulus assessed is unclear at the moment. However nominal 85 billion dollars which will be designated as the purchase of the notes is expected to be realized in the next year.

Technically, gold at today’s trading session on Tuesday (25/06) potentially bearish, test returned negative trend, but prone to reversal. RSI indicator tends to re-test support channel and towards the oversold area, but Bollinger Band which began to widen, thus giving impetus to gold to the upside.

Estimated gold price immediately prior to test support at least in the area of ​​1241.00 and re-test the maximum level of 1212.01. However, if the price of gold is able to break and hold above 1281.70 then estimated the price of gold could potentially test the Resistance 1310.78 and 1337.61.

Gold priced dropped to the lowest since September 2010 – 24/06 – 28/06 XULF Weekly Report

Gold tumbled badly last week after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the exiting of the bond buying will begin if the current trend of economic development continues and a break below two support levels of $1338 and April’s low of $1321 exacerbated the drop. Priced dropped to $1269.51 which is the lowest since September 2010 before having a small bounce on Friday to as high as $1302.46. Bernanke’s language was similar to previous statements reiterating any slowdown will be data dependant and he refrained from giving specific timelines which makes gold’s decline feel a little overdone. However the culmination of a stimulus withdrawal getting nearer and low inflation are hitting gold hard and leaving investors little reason for holding the metal but if uncertainty is around the corner, maybe triggered by China’s slowdown or the Fed’s exit plan or both, then this may help gold fight back and limit the slide.

Due to gold’s multi-year bull market there aren’t many clear standout support levels to help a strong bounce. $1156 is the next potential support level established after a bull market pullback in May 2010 however this is not comforting for the bulls given we are about $140 away from that level. Therefore more declines are expected but this week looks like we may see a rebound before more another downward leg after Friday printed a bullish harami and the RSI has recovered to the 30 level. If the stochastic can cross back above 20 with a cross of the fast and slow lines this will add to the probability of a bounce and take into account that price is also trading on the outside of the lower Bollinger Band signalling a forthcoming correction. Target level will be the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level at $1315 which should deliver some resistance and if price can push pass it will find more resistance at previous support level $1321. Gold was range bound between $1338 and $1423 for over 4 weeks across May and June and any break to the upside or downside is likely to dictate sentiment for the rest of the year therefore longer term position traders should consider shorts after corrections. Of course things can change if the US economic recovery has setbacks and stimulus prevails however right now things are very bearish for gold over the long term.

This week holds a relatively busy economic agenda mainly centred on the US. On Tuesday we have New Home Sales, US House Prices and the UK’s inflation report that could indirectly affect gold by moving the GBP/USD pair. On Wednesday there is a final measure of US growth for the 1st quarter which is expected to be 2.4% so be ready to trade following any surprises there. On Thursday we have the US Weekly Jobless Claims and Pending Home Sales and Friday brings a bunch of data releases from Japan covering inflation, house prices, retail and industrial output.

Metal suffer worst week since April – Market Analysis Monday 24th of June

Hang Seng Index ended down, Bearish Not Ended

Hong Kong stock exchange for trading days last week suffered impairment recorded. Exchange closed again weakened due to negative sentiment that has raised fears of the U.S. economy post the plan on Fed statement will lift economic stimulus policy.

Technically, the index on the trading session today, Monday (24/06) chance to weaken, test negative trends, browse Wall Street. On the H1 chart bearish engulfing formation provides an opportunity for the index to move downside. However, the volume tends to rise, early indications bulish index. In addition, RSI, on the H1 chart, selling in saturated areas, signal upside.

Partly, the index test in advance Support level ie 19 038 and 18 454. If they fail at 19 899, then the index is estimated to tend to test further back resistance level that is 20 532 and the possibility of being extended to 21 240 in the area.

EUR / USD: Euro Drops Further, Support 1.3095 | EU Data Focus

In Friday trading yesterday, the opening price of EUR / USD at 1.3221. Movement of this currency pair experienced pretty sharp corrective decline, the amplification precede the peak level Pulled 1.3250 then back to 1.3095 after the policy level through 1.3158 support (low, 20 June). Closing price at 1.3115, marked by a bearish candle.

Technically, today’s trading session on Monday (24/06), the pair euro dollar opportunity to move in a negative trend.

Predicted weakening of the Euro, especially immediately test back Support minimum and maximum that is at 1.2896 1.2774. And as, if able to break and last Euro above 1.3104, then the other alternative scenario ie Euro chance to test resistance at 1.3262 and 1.3413 area.

Gold Rebound In New York After the Fall to Lowest Since 2010

Gold rose from its lowest since 2010, with speculation that the collapse could trigger a purchase. Metal suffer worst week since April after Federal Reserve chairman Ben S Bernanke said the central bank could hold stimulusnya.

Technically, gold at today’s trading session, Monday (24/06) reversal potential, tested positive trend, but prone to profit taking. RSI indicators tend to re-test resistance bullish channel and head area, but Bollinger band began to shrink, giving impetus to gold to the downside.

Chance of gold price immediately prior to test resistance at least in the area and re-test 1327.45 maximum level of 1345.82. But if the price of gold can not afford to break and survive under 1294.00 then predicted the gold price potentially testing Support ie 1273.63 and 1254.63.

Gold has taken a hammering in the last 36 hours – 21/06 XULF Report

XULF Report

Gold has taken a hammering in the last 36 hours as Federal Reserve Chief Ben Bernanke implied that if the current trend of economic progress continues the exit of stimulus will begin. Although the language used was very similar to previous statements highlighting that any slowdown is data dependent and that the Fed are not comfortable enough at present to give specific timelines which makes the battering of gold seem a little overdone. Maybe that’s why gold has surged $20 to around $1290 this morning after making a low of $1269.50.

Technically the daily chart looks oversold according to the RSI, Stochastics and the Bollinger Bands any potential bulls need to wait 24 hours after such a decline to make sure the market has stabilized on lower volatility. If today prints a mildly bullish reversal candlestick look for long opportunities on Monday and by then the aforementioned indicators will have triggered the buy signals. Be aware that this strategy is risky because it entails going against the trend and the overall bearish trend could resume itself at anytime. Therefore take profits when a bearish candlestick prints or target the 38.2% Fib retracement level at $1314. The main event today is Bank of Japan’s Governor Kuroda who is talking at a press conference at 7:45 GMT and his aim will be to reinstall confidence into the Japanese stock market by reinforcing the intent on weakening the yen and achieving 2% inflation therefore USD/JPY could have a surge and be back on track to its long term bullish trend dating back to November and this will give more power to the bears. Taking into account the fragility of gold, the oversold levels and Kuroda speaking today make sure you trade extra careful with both long and shorts because there could be sizeable moves.

Gold closed down more than 6% - Market Analysis Friday 21th of June

The Hang Seng Index Drops Nearly 3%

Hong Kong shares to trade on Thursday closed yesterday experienced a sharp decline. Exchanges are still declining and continue the negative trend due to pressure from fundamentals which investors prefer to sell stocks after the Fed’s decision last night that will reduce the nominal U.S. economic stimulus package.

Technically, the index in the trading session today, Friday (21/06) likely to weaken, test negative trends, the impact of Wall Street. On the bearish engulfing formation M15 chart gives an opportunity for the index to move downside. However, the volume is likely to increase, an early indication of a bullish index. In addition, RSI, on the M15 chart, is in the oversold area, cue upside.

Expected, the index tested the first support level ie 19803 and 19505. If it fails in 20285, we then estimated the index tends to retest the resistance level of 20 599 and continued until the area is likely to be 20 927.

EUR / USD: Euro Weakens, Support 1.3190

In trading Thursday, the opening price of EUR / USD at 1.3293. The movement of this currency pair natural corrective decline, at the start strengthening to a peak of 1.3299 and then pulled back up to ground level after passing support 1.3158 1.3174 (low, June 10).

Technically, the trading session today, Friday (21/06), the pair euro dollar likely to move in a negative trend.

The weakening Euro is mainly expected to immediately reexamine the minimum support at 1.3002 and 1.2872 maximum. Meanwhile, if the euro is able to break and hold above 1.3214, then another alternative scenario the chance to test Euro Resistance at 1.3359 and 1.3472 area.

Fed Signals From Ruin tapering Gold Prices

Gold closed down more than 6% after the price dropped to a low level in more than 2-1/2 years on Thursday, with investors sold gold after the Federal Reserve signaled plans to end the era of easing.

Technically, gold at today’s trading session on Friday (21/06) potentially bearish, test returned negative trend, but prone to reversal. RSI indicator tends to re-test support channel and towards the oversold area, but Bollinger Band which began to widen, thus giving impetus to gold to the upside.

Estimated gold price immediately prior to test support at least in the area of ​​1224.33 and re-test the maximum level of 1187.98. However, if the price of gold is able to break and hold above 1274.05 then estimated the price of gold could potentially test the Resistance 1316.42 and 1355.19.