XULF Report – 3/7

Expecting a continuation?

XULF Report

Gold’s bounce has either ran out of steam or is pausing for breath reaching a high of $1267 yesterday and has since retreated due to some profit taking. Gold bulls will be trimming down positions ahead of the ADP Non-Farms today and the all-encompassing Non-Farms on Friday as the market majority are expecting a continuation of the positive data last week. Since gold’s drop to $1179 last week we have seen a shift in market dynamics as miners cut back on production and an increase in demand in the physical market has sparked a substantial bear market rally. Barricks, the largest gold miner, has now announced it is delaying the opening of its Pascua-Lama mine till 2016 one of the reasons being the drop in gold prices therefore supply squeezes like this should offer gold a bottom support.

Yesterday price did manage to penetrate the $1261 level but the breakout only produced a mere $6 profit and the bears claimed control at $1267 before price found resistance at the Ichimoku clouds. Right now it is difficult to predict the next move on a short term basis because it is dependent on whether we are in a pullback of a rally that began last Friday or that the next leg of the long term bearish trend is assuming itself. Therefore exercise patience and wait for a pattern or strong trendline to emerge before taking a risk. In summary this 4 hour chart is manifesting some profit taking, indecision and cautiousness ahead of the Non-Farm numbers. Often during such market conditions triangle patterns can appear so keep a close eye on any developments.

Some factors for traders to be aware of at present are; the USD/JPY has crossed up above the 100 level again which isn’t good news for gold but if the bulls really do believe this market is oversold then they can overcome dollar strength because, although it may come as a surprise, the dollar accounts for approximately 15% of gold fluctuations meaning both markets can actually move in the same direction. China are currently fighting off the dark cloud of a credit crunch which could have opposing effects on gold subject to the amount of uncertainty it generates. Spain and Italy submit their services industry PMI at 08:15 and 08:45 GMT today which could give investors evidence to add to Monday’s data that there is a bottom in sight for the Eurozone’s economy. At 13:15 the US reveal the private Non-Farms which, as always, will act as a precursor to the US Labour Departments payroll number on Friday.

U.S. Federal Reserve will give the signal for slowing stimulus policy - Market Analysis Wednesday 19th of June

ANALYSIS 19-06-2013

Hong Kong Stock Exchange Closes Flat, Makin overcast since morning

Hong Kong stock exchange for trading Tuesday closed flat yesterday. Reaching the end of trade, the positive movement that occurred since the more overcast morning apparently after the investor does not want to take the results too are at risk due to fundamental conditions covered by the uncertainty regarding the U.S. economic stimulus policy that today will be back Wednesday discussed the Fed meeting.

Technically, the index on the trading session today, Wednesday (19/06) chance to weaken, test negative trends, browse Wall Street. On the bearish engulfing formation M15 chart provides an opportunity for the index to move downside. However, the volume tends to rise, early indications bullish index. In addition, RSI, on the M15 chart, selling in saturated areas, signal upside.

Partly, the index test in advance Support level ie 20 744 and 20502. If failed in the 21160, the estimated index tend to test further back resistance level that is 21 431 and the possibility of being extended to 21 681 in the area.

Toss Euro ZEW report

Euro bolted into position 4-month high versus the U.S. Dollar post a survey showed German economic sentiment continues to improve for the 2nd month in a row, indicating if the largest economy in Europe has been in a moderate recovery path.

Technically, today’s trading session on Wednesday (19/06), the pair euro dollar opportunity to move in a positive trend.

Strengthening of the Euro, especially predicted back soon test resistance at 1.3583 ie the minimum and maximum of 1.3701. And as, if the Euro is not able to break below 1.3392 and then endure another alternative scenario ie the Euro had the opportunity to test Support at 1.3253 and 1.3143 area.

Gold Close Descending, Approach 4 Week Lowest Prices

Gold price ended trading Tuesday down yesterday after chance fell to near the lowest level in four town where many brokerage focused his attention on the possibilities of the U.S. Federal Reserve will give the signal for slowing stimulusnya policy.

Technically, today’s gold trading session this Wednesday (19/06) potentially bearish, test returned negative trend, but prone to reversal. RSI indicators tend to re-test Support channel oversold area and heading, but Bollinger Bands are beginning to widen, thus providing the impetus for gold for upside.

Chance of gold price immediately prior to test Support at least in the area of ​​re-test 1334.06 and 1313.03 maximum level. But if the price of gold is able to break above 1368.80 and defending the gold price estimated potential test resistance ie 1392.68 and 1411.80.