XULF Report – 3/7

Expecting a continuation?

XULF Report

Gold’s bounce has either ran out of steam or is pausing for breath reaching a high of $1267 yesterday and has since retreated due to some profit taking. Gold bulls will be trimming down positions ahead of the ADP Non-Farms today and the all-encompassing Non-Farms on Friday as the market majority are expecting a continuation of the positive data last week. Since gold’s drop to $1179 last week we have seen a shift in market dynamics as miners cut back on production and an increase in demand in the physical market has sparked a substantial bear market rally. Barricks, the largest gold miner, has now announced it is delaying the opening of its Pascua-Lama mine till 2016 one of the reasons being the drop in gold prices therefore supply squeezes like this should offer gold a bottom support.

Yesterday price did manage to penetrate the $1261 level but the breakout only produced a mere $6 profit and the bears claimed control at $1267 before price found resistance at the Ichimoku clouds. Right now it is difficult to predict the next move on a short term basis because it is dependent on whether we are in a pullback of a rally that began last Friday or that the next leg of the long term bearish trend is assuming itself. Therefore exercise patience and wait for a pattern or strong trendline to emerge before taking a risk. In summary this 4 hour chart is manifesting some profit taking, indecision and cautiousness ahead of the Non-Farm numbers. Often during such market conditions triangle patterns can appear so keep a close eye on any developments.

Some factors for traders to be aware of at present are; the USD/JPY has crossed up above the 100 level again which isn’t good news for gold but if the bulls really do believe this market is oversold then they can overcome dollar strength because, although it may come as a surprise, the dollar accounts for approximately 15% of gold fluctuations meaning both markets can actually move in the same direction. China are currently fighting off the dark cloud of a credit crunch which could have opposing effects on gold subject to the amount of uncertainty it generates. Spain and Italy submit their services industry PMI at 08:15 and 08:45 GMT today which could give investors evidence to add to Monday’s data that there is a bottom in sight for the Eurozone’s economy. At 13:15 the US reveal the private Non-Farms which, as always, will act as a precursor to the US Labour Departments payroll number on Friday.

Market Analysis Monday 2nd of July

Encouraging on physical demand

The Nikkei Continue Positive Trend 3 Days

Japanese shares for trading on Monday closed up. Encouragement of the impact of the depreciation of the yen against the U.S. dollar which is currently predicted at the level of 99.59 per U.S. dollar back into equities a key factor in addition to a report Monday on upbeat data Tankan manufacturing index for the month of May by 4 points, or higher compared with a previous prediction by 3 points.

Technically, the index in the trading session today, Tuesday (02/07) likely to weaken, test negative trends, the impact of Wall Street. On the bearish engulfing formation M15 chart gives an opportunity for the index to move downside. However, the volume is likely to increase, an early indication of a bullish index. In addition, RSI, on the M15 chart, is in the oversold area, cue upside.

Expected, the index tested the first support level ie 13 842 and 13 763. If it fails in 13970, we then estimated the index tends to retest the resistance level of 14024 and continued up to the possibility of being in the 14098 area.

The yen fell against the dollar

The yen fell against the dollar hit the lowest level that has never happened since the last three weeks, as the central bank’s Tankan data is released showing the level of large-scale manufacturing sector is optimistic in the second quarter and reached the highest level in the last 2 years.

Technically, today’s trading session on Tuesday (02/07), the dollar yen pair has a chance to move in a positive trend.

A stronger yen primarily expected soon reexamine the minimal resistance at 101.15 and 102.17 maximum. Meanwhile, if the Yen was able to break and stays below 99.54 then another alternative scenario that is likely to test support Yen’s in the area of ​​98.21 and 97.13.

Gold Turning Direction After Falling to Lowest Since 2010

Gold rose for a second day in New York on speculation falling to 34-month low and the biggest quarterly fall on record will encourage physical demand.

Technically, gold in the trading session today, Tuesday (02/07) potential reversal, tested positive trend, but prone to profit taking. Indicator RSI resistance likely to re-test the bullish channel and into the area, but the Bollinger Bands are starting to shrink, thus giving impetus to gold to the downside.

Estimated gold price immediately prior to test resistance at least in the area of ​​1263.29 and re-test the maximum level of 1267.93. However, if the gold price could not break and stays below 1257.05 then estimated the price of gold has the potential to test Support the 1251.97 and 1247.18.

Market Analysis Tuesday 25th of June

Ben Bernanke concerning policy stimulus assessed is unclear

Korean Stock Market Hit Bottom Up to 1800 Points

Lower back movement occurred in South Korea stock market where negative pressure is obtained from the weakening of the majority of stock markets in Asia. Broadly speaking, the Asian stock market sentiment was hit by a concern for the U.S. economy as the potential decrease in the amount of U.S. economic stimulus package.

Technically, the index in the trading session today, Tuesday (25/06) likely to weaken, test negative trends, the impact of Wall Street. At the H4 chart bearish engulfing formation provides opportunities for the index to move downside. However, the volume is likely to increase, an early indication of bullish index. In addition, RSI, on the H4 chart, is in the oversold area, cue upside.

Expected, the index tested the first support level ie 236.97 and 230.55. If it fails at 245.55, then the next index is expected to tend to retest the 251.32 resistance level and continue up the possibility of being in the 256.42 area.

USDJPY soared Related Comments BoJ Iwata

Pairing USDJPY soared 30 points in a while due to BoJ Iwata’s comments stating that the central bank still has several options of monetary policy.

Technically, the trading session today, Tuesday (25/06), the dollar yen pair has a chance to move in a negative trend.

Weakening Yen primarily expected soon reexamine the minimum support at 95.56 and 94.32 maximum. Meanwhile, if the Yen is able to break and hold above 97.55, then another alternative scenario the chance to test Resistance Yen’s in the area of ​​98.84 and 100.04.

Gold prices Makin dimmed, Negative Fundamentals

Gold prices to trade tonight again decreased. As with other futures investments trading, precious metals commodity prices are also overwhelmed by the pressure coming from the U.S. economy. Statement from Fed Governor Ben Bernanke concerning policy stimulus assessed is unclear at the moment. However nominal 85 billion dollars which will be designated as the purchase of the notes is expected to be realized in the next year.

Technically, gold at today’s trading session on Tuesday (25/06) potentially bearish, test returned negative trend, but prone to reversal. RSI indicator tends to re-test support channel and towards the oversold area, but Bollinger Band which began to widen, thus giving impetus to gold to the upside.

Estimated gold price immediately prior to test support at least in the area of ​​1241.00 and re-test the maximum level of 1212.01. However, if the price of gold is able to break and hold above 1281.70 then estimated the price of gold could potentially test the Resistance 1310.78 and 1337.61.

XULF Report 18/06 - Markets are awaiting for Bernanke's comments at the FOMC press conference

XULF Report

Another quiet and range bound period is expected today as the markets wait for Bernanke’s comments at the FOMC press conference on Wednesday scheduled 19:00 GMT. Taking into account the mixed bag of data and the unspectacular May Non-Farms Bernanke is likely to reiterate stimulus reduction is data dependant therefore gold looks like it could be stuck in the $1375 to $1390 range for some time to come. There could be some volatility beforehand if the US housing data tonight shows further improvement in new builds which could cause a spike in equities and suppress gold but it does feel like gold needs a significant shift in the fundamental outlook in order for the bears to gain control over the bulls.

Keep looking to sell at resistance and buy at support levels displayed by shooting stars and hammers and/or two or more touches of a certain price level as this is the best way to capture a few dollars of profit before we see the big next move. It is worth noting the bullish trendline that is visible on the 1 hour chart coloured green. As I write price is sitting on the trendline making its fourth touch so there could be an opportunity to achieve a short term profit via a bounce or break. The red horizontal line displays shorter term resistance at $1385 that has received 3 touches so far today so again look for bounce or breaks at this level.

Taking a longer term view from a technical perspective remember the two side by side shooting stars on the weekly chart which has now been followed by a bullish hammer. The shadows on the shooting stars are longer than the hammers shadow meaning the bears still have the upper hand so look for good entry levels to short if you don’t mind taking on the risk and volatility that will occur on Wednesday. Sometimes candlesticks do not have immediate effects but can influence price at a later date.

Market Analysis Tuesday 18th of June

ANALYSIS 18-06-2013

Kospi worry about Global Economy

Kospi fell as widespread concerns over global economic growth outlook. G-8 confirms outlook for the global economy remains weak despite slowdown risk has been reduced.

Technically, the index in the trading session today, Tuesday (18/06) likely to weaken, test negative trends, the impact of Wall Street. On the M30 chart bearish engulfing berformasi provide opportunities for the index to move downside. However, the volume is likely to increase, an early indication of bullish index. In addition, RSI, on the M30 chart, is in the oversold area, cue upside.

Expected, the index tested the first support level ie 241.16 and 238.37. If it fails at 245.55, then the next index is expected to tend to retest the 248.66 resistance level and continue up the possibility of being in the 251.55 area.

Stock Trading Session duration in Europe, Euro Steady Against U.S. Dollar

Trading foreign exchange on Monday the euro just naturally a little movement against the U.S. dollar as investors await the outcome of a U.S. Federal Reserve meeting later this week.

Technically, today’s trading session on Tuesday (18/06), the pair euro dollar likely to move in a positive trend.

A stronger Euro is mainly expected to soon re-test the resistance at 1.3541 minimum and maximum 1.3659. Meanwhile, if the Euro was unable to break and stays below 1.3357 then another alternative scenario the Euro likely to test support at the 1.3228 area and 1.3117.

Gold prices closed down to $ 1,383.10

Gold prices ended closed down after the broker more waiting to be ahead of the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting which will take place this week.

Technically, gold at today’s trading session on Tuesday (18/06) potentially bearish, test returned negative trend, but prone to reversal. RSI indicator tends to re-test support channel and towards the oversold area, but Bollinger Band which began to widen, thus giving impetus to gold to the upside.

Estimated gold price immediately prior to test support at least in the area of ​​1356.12 and re-test the maximum level of 1340.66. However, if the price of gold is able to break and hold above 1384.90 then estimated the price of gold could potentially test the Resistance 1404.16 and 1421.66.

XULF Weekly Report 17 – 21 June

XULF Weekly Gold Report

Last week was another week of sideways movement for gold showing good resilience against strong US Retail Sales and Jobless Claims. On Tuesday it looked as though the bears were finally getting a grip of this market as they forced down through a couple of support levels in the $1370’s to print a low of $1365.32. The fundamentals for gold are certainly bearish but this is being countered technically by the bulls wanting to push a bear trend correction and this is creating an equilibrium just under the $1400 level. The widely used term ‘tapering’, referring to the anticipated stimulus slowdown, has negative connotations for gold as the process should only be conducted in the presence of a healthy US economy and it will strengthen the US dollar making gold more expensive in other currencies but simultaneously gold is in demand to some degree because of the uncertainty of how the economies and financial markets will react when the tapering begins. However the Fed may continue with the bond buying for longer than expected and only withdraw when there are signs of inflation which would be ideal for gold as the removal of one catalyst will be replaced by another. Therefore the outlook for the rest of the year will be largely influenced by the presence of three factors; stimulus, uncertainty and inflation and taking into account these environments never seem to be far away gold should put up a good fight in the long term.

The weekly chart shows that gold could be close to deciding which way it wants to move from here and break out the $1350 to $1420 range. I have referred to the momentum indicator in recent reports as it is appropriate and very useful given gold’s circumstances at present. The indicator is pushing against its own bearish trendline which could prove to be a pivotal moment. If we see a break on the momentum indicator this would be bullish as it would be characteristic of the current trend having weakened and that the market is poised to reverse. On the contrary if we see a bounce on the indicators trendline expect to see more declines as the bulls lose confidence in trying to revive this once beloved commodity.

In the short term the best way to trade this market, taking into account the lack of direction, is to buy at support and sell at resistance. Support and resistance levels are formed when a price level receives a higher volume of buying or selling and this is often displayed by long shadowed candlesticks especially hammers and shooting stars. Bear in mind these levels on this 1 hour chart are only minor support and resistances as they have only had one instance of higher volume but nonetheless can be useful to capture a few dollars of profit. Look to sell at the yellow resistance and buy around the green support lines but be mindful of any news that may be moving price towards these levels because if the move is backed by news we could see price knock down these levels. If price approaches either of these levels in an absence of news and economic numbers then there is a stronger case for applying this tactic.

Important economic releases to watch out for this week include the German ZEW survey and US Inflation data on Tuesday. On Wednesday there is a German 10 year bond auction that will garner close attention and affect EUR/USD and at 19:00 GMT the FOMC express their views on the US economy and will give more clues as to when the tapering may begin or under what circumstances they will begin to act. There is German and US manufacturing along with US Home sales data Thursday and on Friday Bank of Japan’s Governor Kuroda speaks at a press conference.

Market Analysis Monday 17th of June

ANALYSIS 17-06-2013

Negative sentiment Marak; Nikkei Hit Back

Japanese stocks in trading today seems to have decreased significantly (17/06). Nikkei index is still in negative territory after opening fell 1 percent this morning. Investors looked again attacked negative sentiment following the decline in trading on Wall Street last weekend.

Technically, the index in the trading session today, Monday (17/06) likely to weaken, test negative trends, the impact of Wall Street. On the bearish engulfing formation M15 chart gives an opportunity for the index to move downside. However, the volume is likely to increase, an early indication of a bullish index. In addition, RSI, on the M15 chart, is in the oversold area, cue upside.

Expected, the index tested the first support level ie 11397 and 10716. If it fails at 12 435, then the next index is expected to tend to retest the resistance level of 13113 and continued up to the possibility of being in the 13770 area.

USD / JPY: Dollar Yen Down Limited, Support 93.97 | Focus G8 Meetings

In trading on Friday, the opening price of USD / JPY at 95.59. The movement of this currency pair experienced a sharp decline in the range, preceded strengthening to peak at 95.75 level and then pulled back up to the basic level of 93.97. Closing price at 94.14, marked with a bearish candle.

Technically, the trading session today, Monday (17/06), the dollar yen pair has a chance to move in a negative trend.

Weakening Yen primarily expected soon reexamine the minimum support at 92.14 and 90.80 maximum. Meanwhile, if the Yen is able to break and hold above 94.56, then another alternative scenario the chance to test Resistance Yen’s in the area of ​​96.17 and 97.67.

Prediction Gold Prices Up or Down?

Gold futures rose as a government report showed wholesale prices rose in May for the first three months, driving up the demand for the precious metal as a means of hedging tackle inflation.

Technically, gold at today’s trading session, Monday (17/06) potential reversal, tested positive trend, but prone to profit taking. Indicator RSI resistance likely to re-test the bullish channel and into the area, but the Bollinger Bands are starting to shrink, thus giving impetus to gold to the downside.

Estimated gold price immediately prior to test resistance at least in the area of ​​1418.43 and re-test the maximum level of 1435.23. However, if the gold price could not break and stays below 1390.05 then estimated the price of gold has the potential to test Support the 1369.26 and 1350.06.

Market Analysis Friday 14th of June

Kospi ended down 1.4%; 1870 Support
Kospi index ended down by 1.4% at 1882.73 as a sharp decline in the Nikkei have an impact on Asian markets; 1870 will be the support level, which analysts say will be an important technical level.

Technically, the index in the trading session today, Friday (14/06) likely to weaken, test negative trends, the impact of Wall Street. On the bearish engulfing formation M15 chart gives an opportunity for the index to move downside. However, the volume is likely to increase, an early indication of a bullish index. In addition, RSI, on the M15 chart, is in the oversold area, cue upside.

Expected, the index tested the first support level ie 243.61 and 242.39. If it fails at 245.55, then the next index is expected to tend to retest the 246.86 resistance level and continue up the possibility of being in the 248.00 area.

Yen Gains Further Ready
According to Robert Sinche, global strategist at Pierpont Securities Holdings, the yen will strengthen further, due to Japanese investors were disappointed the BoJ monetary easing policies. “The BoJ hopes to buy government bonds will encourage Japanese investors to move capital into overseas markets, which would weaken the yen, but it did not happen” said Robert

Technically, today’s trading session on Friday (14/06), the dollar yen pair has a chance to move in a positive trend.
A stronger yen primarily expected soon reexamine the minimal resistance at 97.67 and 99.17 maximum. Meanwhile, if the Yen was able to break and stays below 95.61 then another alternative scenario that is likely to test support Yen’s in the area of ​​93.84 and 92.45

Gold down 1% as U.S. Jobs Data
Gold and silver fell 1 percent after fewer Americans are filling out an application for unemployment benefits than expected last week, easing pressure on the Federal Reserve to maintain stimulus measures to boost the economy

Technically, gold at today’s trading session on Friday (14/06) potentially bearish, test returned negative trend, but prone to reversal. RSI indicator tends to re-test support channel and towards the oversold area, but Bollinger Band which began to widen, thus giving impetus to gold to the upside.
Estimated gold price immediately prior to test support at least in the area of ​​1357.86 and re-test the maximum level of 1338.07. However, if the price of gold is able to break and hold above 1385.35 then estimated the price of gold could potentially test the Resistance 1406.44 and 1425.03.

Jalatama Loco London (XULF) Report 13/06/2013

XULF Report
Gold staged an impressive recovery yesterday reaching a high of $1394.64 attributed to a falling US Dollar against the Japanese Yen and the Euro. Due to the rapid gains of USD/JPY this year we are seeing a strong correction which has prevented gold from declining at the rate we witnessed in April and stabilize somewhat. Although the dollar should eventually begin to resume its bull trend as the Fed starts to wind down stimulus and more money flows from emerging markets into US Treasuries as investors seek out the right balance of safety and returns. The main news today will be the US Retail Sales and Jobless Claims 13:30 GMT although given the lack of trend in the Retail Sales this number is unlikely to cause any great shakes.

Taking a technical perspective to predict gold’s movement in the short term is rather difficult due to the volatility, mainly ascribed to the USD/JPY, which has resulted in any trend having a very short lifespan. Stimulus tapering, slowing Chinese growth and a substantial USD/JPY correction are having conflicting effects on gold meaning its lacking any assertive direction. One thing worth pointing out is the price convergence on the daily chart that illustrates the opposing forces via a triangle pattern. Since April’s fall the trading range for gold is becoming increasingly tighter manifested by the triangle and a breakout could dictate the direction for the following weeks or even months. A push up towards $1420 again would break gold out of the triangle and generate momentum for surpassing the $1423.90 high achieved 6th June. A drop below $1345 would mean the bears have the upper hand and have the confidence to break down support of $1321 which was the low of the year.

Market Analysis Thursday 13th of June

Nikkei index plummeted; Global Stock Market profanity
In trading on the Japanese stock market Wednesday morning that decline more sharply. Japanese stocks under selling pressure amid plunging global stock exchanges. A stronger yen and disappointment that the BOJ did not provide better policies to address the volatility in the bond market make market participants decide to exit the market.

Technically, the index in the trading session today, Thursday (13/06) likely to weaken, test negative trends, the impact of Wall Street. At the H4 chart bearish engulfing formation provides opportunities for the index to move downside. However, the volume is likely to increase, an early indication of a bullish index. In addition, RSI, on the H4 chart, is in the oversold area, cue upside.

Expected, the index tested the first support level ie 12024 and 11495. If it fails in 12790, we then estimated the index tends to retest the resistance level of 13341 and continued up to the possibility of being in the 13824 area.

USD / JPY: Dollar Yen Low Approach, Focus on U.S. Data
In trading Wednesday, the opening price of USD / JPY at 96.04. The movement of this currency pair experienced a sharp decline in the range, preceded strengthening to peak at 97.01 level and then pulled back up to ground level after passing support 95.13 95.58 (low, June 11). Closing price at 95.85, marked with a doji candle.

Technically, the trading session today, Thursday (13/06), the dollar yen pair has a chance to move in a negative trend.

Weakening Yen primarily expected soon reexamine the minimum support at 92.86 and 91.58 maximum. Meanwhile, if the Yen is able to break and hold above 95.34, then another alternative scenario the chance to test Resistance Yen’s in the area of ​​96.95 and 98.39.

Gold prices ended up, BOJ policy influence fluctuations
Gold prices in futures trading in the U.S. session today ended up in early trading Wednesday after briefly weakened back where traders expect the Fed will continue its quantitative policy to not make meaningful changes.

Technically, gold in the trading session today, Thursday (13/06) potential reversal, tested positive trend, but prone to profit taking. Indicator RSI resistance likely to re-test the bullish channel and into the area, but the Bollinger Bands are starting to shrink, thus giving impetus to gold to the downside.

Estimated gold price immediately prior to test resistance at least in the area of ​​1413.65 and re-test the maximum level of 1432.79. However, if the gold price could not break and stays below 1385.25 then estimated the price of gold has the potential to test Support the 1363.25 and 1345.11.

Market Analysis Tuesday 11th of June

South Korean stocks rebound Thin

As with other stock markets in Asia, South Korea’s stock market movements on Monday closed an increase. Rising stock movement sustained by the sentiment of the purchase volume increases as the stock market movements have decreased significantly more than a week.

Technically, the index in the trading session today, Tuesday (11/06) likely to weaken, test negative trends, the impact of Wall Street. On the M15 chart bearish engulfing berformasi provide opportunities for the index to move downside. However, the volume is likely to increase, an early indication of bullish index. In addition, RSI, on the M15 chart, is in the oversold area, cue upside.

Expected, the index tested the first support level ie 245.39 and 242.23. If it fails at 250.30, then the next index is expected to tend to retest the 254.48 resistance level and continue up the possibility of being in the 257.63 area.

Japan and Revised Credit Data U.S. Dollar Strengthen

The dollar rose against the yen on Monday driven by Japanese GDP data for the first quarter of 2013 amounted to 1% of the 0.9% forecast. The current account surplus increased from ¥ 340 billion to ¥ 850 billion for the first quarter of 2013. Bank lending grew 1.8% in May, better than the 1.7% the previous publications. These data raised the Japanese stock market, the Nikkei closed up nearly 5%, which usually makes the yen weakened, so the dollar strengthened.

Technically, today’s trading session on Tuesday (11/06), the dollar yen pair has a chance to move in a positive trend.

A stronger yen primarily expected soon reexamine the minimal resistance at 100.52 and 101.73 maximum. Meanwhile, if the Yen was able to break and stays below 98.66 then another alternative scenario that is likely to test support Yen’s in the area of ​​97.52 and 96.43.

China Economic Data Weakens, Gold Up

Gold futures on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange rose slightly on Monday after Chinese economic data was weaker than expected.

Technically, gold at today’s trading session on Tuesday (11/06) potentially bearish, test returned negative trend, but prone to reversal. RSI indicator tends to re-test support channel and towards the oversold area, but Bollinger Band which began to widen, thus giving impetus to gold to the upside.

Estimated gold price immediately prior to test support at least in the area of ​​1360.03 and re-test the maximum level of 1343.13. However, if the price of gold is able to break and hold above 1384.70 then estimated the price of gold could potentially test the Resistance 1402.82 and 1419.15.

Jalatama Loco London (XULF) Weekly Report 10 – 14 June 2013

Weekly XULF Report 10 – 14 June 2013

Gold was having a steady performance last week until a better than expected US Non-Farms on Friday gave good reason for investors to ditch safe havens for riskier assets causing gold to erase all of its gains on Thursday to reach a two week low of $1378.80. For much of the week gold was hovering around the $1400 level until ECB President Mario Draghi’s comments triggered a spike to $1421 after he informed the markets that the economy should stabilize and recover during the course of the year and that further monetary stimulus was not at the forefront of policymakers’ minds. Investors bought the Euro and aggressively sold the dollar on the back of these comments. Gold’s gains were eradicated 24 hours later when the US Non-Farm data showed that despite the mixed set of data recently the US economy is creating more jobs raising the probability of stimulus tapering occurring before the latter parts of the year.

The biggest drag on gold at present is the anticipation of the Federal Reserve slowing down the bond purchases which will strengthen the dollar making gold more expensive for investors using other currencies. Contrary to popular opinion gold may hold its ground and be tough for the bears to control for the rest of the year. Gold has already priced in a significant chunk of this expectation by declining nearly 20% this year therefore it would be foolhardy to take further declines for granted when the Fed begins the slowdown. If the Fed cuts back too sharply we could see a strong equity correction and some losses for gold but as investors take a look at the bigger picture they may switch to safe haven assets amid the uncertainty generated by the removal of stimulus on such an unprecedented scale. In the other scenario if the Fed play it in a way that appeases investors this should result in lower volatility for both gold and equities which would regenerate some confidence in gold and be supportive for a good finish by the end of 2013.

Technically gold has been showing signs of a possible bounce back towards the long term bearish trendline over the past three weeks but last Friday’s drop means the weekly chart is now displaying two consecutive shooting stars. The 10, 20, 50 and 100 Moving Averages aligned in descending order illustrates the market is far away from any correction but the higher low on the RSI indicates the pace of the decline is diminishing. Bulls will have been watching for a break of the bearish trendline on the momentum indicator but unfortunately for them Friday’s performance looks as though the momentum indicator is now bouncing off its own trendline ready for another downward leg. So to summarise the outlook for gold it looks like there will be a descent during June but at a slowing rate. Although traders need to be mindful of gold’s resilience of late in face of bearish fundamentals which hints that the market may be ready for a correction towards the long term bearish trendline within the next few weeks.

We have an eventful week with various types of data scheduled including Japan’s monetary statement and press conference Tuesday which is likely to move USD/JPY. On Wednesday and Thursday Germany are concluding a constitutional ruling on the ECB’s monetary operations which will impact gold by moving the EUR/USD, Thursday reveals US Retail Sales for May and on Friday is the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment survey. Trade carefully around these numbers by using stop losses or reducing exposure.

Market Analysis Monday 10th of June

ANALYSIS 10-06-2013

Nikkei completely collapse

Japanese stock exchange to day trade last Friday closed weakened back. Attenuation due to the availability of stock movements a negative condition for economic projections after U.S. economic stimulus plan policy that will cost a fee of 85 billion would be postponed until the advent of the agreement among the members of the Fed. At the moment the exchange rate equals the yen against the dollar back up to suppress a rising share prices based exporters.

Technically, the index on the trading session today, Monday (10/06) chance to weaken, test negative trends, browse Wall Street. At the H4 chart bearish engulfing formation provides an opportunity for the index to move downside. However, the volume tends to rise, early indications bullish index. In addition, RSI, on the H4 chart, selling in saturated areas, signal upside.

Partly, the index test in advance Support level ie 12 421 and 11888. If failed in the 13310, the estimated index tend to test further back that is 13855 and resistance levels continued to be in the area of ​​14 407 possibilities.

USD / JPY: Dollar Yen Soar, 97.93 Resistance

At last Friday trading, the opening price of USD / JPY at 97.40. Movement of this currency pair experienced a sharp reversal of the direction of up, starting at the bottom level of attenuation to 94.97 after passing the 95.74 support (low, April 5) and then rebounds to the peak level of 97.76.

Technically, today’s trading session on Monday (10/06), the dollar yen pair had the opportunity to move in a positive trend.

Strengthening of yen mainly predicted back soon test resistance at 100.50 ie the minimum and maximum of 102.17. And as, if not capable of yen below 98.10 last break and then another alternative scenario ie Yen chance to test Support at 98.10 and 95.24 area.

Sales turnover Gold This Year Descending

Negative movement in the price of gold still happen on Saturday. The precious metal commodities reported depressed due to the availability of reports that precious metal sales turnover for this year experienced a decline of 45 billion dollars on imformasi from the U.S. Mint that is shaped gold sellers retail enterprises and coins.

Technically, gold trading session today on Monday (10/06) potentially bearish, test returned negative trend, but prone to reversal. RSI indicators tend to re-test Support channel oversold area and heading, but Bollinger Bands are beginning to widen, thus providing the impetus for gold for upside.

Chance of gold price immediately prior to test Support at least in the area of ​​re-test 1360.46 and 1344.38 maximum level. But if the price of gold is able to break above 1386.10 and defending the gold price estimated potential test resistance ie 1404.80 and 1420.39.