XULF Report – 3/7

Expecting a continuation?

XULF Report

Gold’s bounce has either ran out of steam or is pausing for breath reaching a high of $1267 yesterday and has since retreated due to some profit taking. Gold bulls will be trimming down positions ahead of the ADP Non-Farms today and the all-encompassing Non-Farms on Friday as the market majority are expecting a continuation of the positive data last week. Since gold’s drop to $1179 last week we have seen a shift in market dynamics as miners cut back on production and an increase in demand in the physical market has sparked a substantial bear market rally. Barricks, the largest gold miner, has now announced it is delaying the opening of its Pascua-Lama mine till 2016 one of the reasons being the drop in gold prices therefore supply squeezes like this should offer gold a bottom support.

Yesterday price did manage to penetrate the $1261 level but the breakout only produced a mere $6 profit and the bears claimed control at $1267 before price found resistance at the Ichimoku clouds. Right now it is difficult to predict the next move on a short term basis because it is dependent on whether we are in a pullback of a rally that began last Friday or that the next leg of the long term bearish trend is assuming itself. Therefore exercise patience and wait for a pattern or strong trendline to emerge before taking a risk. In summary this 4 hour chart is manifesting some profit taking, indecision and cautiousness ahead of the Non-Farm numbers. Often during such market conditions triangle patterns can appear so keep a close eye on any developments.

Some factors for traders to be aware of at present are; the USD/JPY has crossed up above the 100 level again which isn’t good news for gold but if the bulls really do believe this market is oversold then they can overcome dollar strength because, although it may come as a surprise, the dollar accounts for approximately 15% of gold fluctuations meaning both markets can actually move in the same direction. China are currently fighting off the dark cloud of a credit crunch which could have opposing effects on gold subject to the amount of uncertainty it generates. Spain and Italy submit their services industry PMI at 08:15 and 08:45 GMT today which could give investors evidence to add to Monday’s data that there is a bottom in sight for the Eurozone’s economy. At 13:15 the US reveal the private Non-Farms which, as always, will act as a precursor to the US Labour Departments payroll number on Friday.

XULF Weekly Report 1/7 – 5/7

Exciting week for gold

Weekly XULF Report

A series of good economic data from the US caused gold to drop even more last week opening at $1299.64 and closing down $67 at $1232.97. It was always going to be an interesting week with market participants eagerly awaiting data that could materialise Ben Bernanke’s intentions stated at the FOMC press conference the previous week. The Fed Chairman has expressed the plan to begin tapering down the bond buying within a few months if data continues to paint a picture of a strengthening economy and last week delivered a set of strong data spanning across housing, consumer confidence, spending, jobs and durable goods bringing that plan closer to action. Stocks and Treasuries have declined since the FOMC conference on 19th June but gold has been hurt the most as the yellow metal’s fragile position is being compounded by low inflation and may have further to drop according to its correlation to the CPI figure. The gold to CPI ratio historical average is 3.4 to 1 however the current ratio is 5.3 to 1 meaning it is still overvalued and that there could be further declines to come.

Traders looking to dip their toe for a bounce will be motivated by gold having a fight back Friday and completing a bullish engulfing candlestick. There are reports that gold miners are cutting back on production with the price at these lower levels which should help gold to some extent in the short term. This morning the Stochastic and the RSI have generated buy signals with is more evidence we could see a bounce.

The 4 hour chart is an interesting timeframe to analyse given gold’s technical situation and apologies for the chart looking confusing but I’m using the Ichimoku indicator that consists of a few different parts. The Ichimoku indicator has recently signalled a buy by crossing the blue Kijun Sen line from beneath which acts in a similar way to a moving average. Since the crossover this morning there has been a spate of volatility but now price has penetrated we could see further inclines. A feasible long target is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $1261 or until price interacts with the Ichimoku cloud. Before risking a buy it would be prudent to watch how the latest 4 hour candlestick prints for signs of whether price will continue the bounce or resume its bearish trend. The main events this week fall later in the week and are the Bank of Japan press conference where Governor Kuroda will be speaking and the ECB press conference on Thursday followed by the all-important US Non-Farms on Friday. Economic data is being even more scrutinized than usual now the Fed’s intentions are quite clear therefore we could have a volatile and exciting week for gold.

Market Analysis Tuesday 25th of June

Ben Bernanke concerning policy stimulus assessed is unclear

Korean Stock Market Hit Bottom Up to 1800 Points

Lower back movement occurred in South Korea stock market where negative pressure is obtained from the weakening of the majority of stock markets in Asia. Broadly speaking, the Asian stock market sentiment was hit by a concern for the U.S. economy as the potential decrease in the amount of U.S. economic stimulus package.

Technically, the index in the trading session today, Tuesday (25/06) likely to weaken, test negative trends, the impact of Wall Street. At the H4 chart bearish engulfing formation provides opportunities for the index to move downside. However, the volume is likely to increase, an early indication of bullish index. In addition, RSI, on the H4 chart, is in the oversold area, cue upside.

Expected, the index tested the first support level ie 236.97 and 230.55. If it fails at 245.55, then the next index is expected to tend to retest the 251.32 resistance level and continue up the possibility of being in the 256.42 area.

USDJPY soared Related Comments BoJ Iwata

Pairing USDJPY soared 30 points in a while due to BoJ Iwata’s comments stating that the central bank still has several options of monetary policy.

Technically, the trading session today, Tuesday (25/06), the dollar yen pair has a chance to move in a negative trend.

Weakening Yen primarily expected soon reexamine the minimum support at 95.56 and 94.32 maximum. Meanwhile, if the Yen is able to break and hold above 97.55, then another alternative scenario the chance to test Resistance Yen’s in the area of ​​98.84 and 100.04.

Gold prices Makin dimmed, Negative Fundamentals

Gold prices to trade tonight again decreased. As with other futures investments trading, precious metals commodity prices are also overwhelmed by the pressure coming from the U.S. economy. Statement from Fed Governor Ben Bernanke concerning policy stimulus assessed is unclear at the moment. However nominal 85 billion dollars which will be designated as the purchase of the notes is expected to be realized in the next year.

Technically, gold at today’s trading session on Tuesday (25/06) potentially bearish, test returned negative trend, but prone to reversal. RSI indicator tends to re-test support channel and towards the oversold area, but Bollinger Band which began to widen, thus giving impetus to gold to the upside.

Estimated gold price immediately prior to test support at least in the area of ​​1241.00 and re-test the maximum level of 1212.01. However, if the price of gold is able to break and hold above 1281.70 then estimated the price of gold could potentially test the Resistance 1310.78 and 1337.61.

Gold priced dropped to the lowest since September 2010 – 24/06 – 28/06 XULF Weekly Report

Gold tumbled badly last week after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the exiting of the bond buying will begin if the current trend of economic development continues and a break below two support levels of $1338 and April’s low of $1321 exacerbated the drop. Priced dropped to $1269.51 which is the lowest since September 2010 before having a small bounce on Friday to as high as $1302.46. Bernanke’s language was similar to previous statements reiterating any slowdown will be data dependant and he refrained from giving specific timelines which makes gold’s decline feel a little overdone. However the culmination of a stimulus withdrawal getting nearer and low inflation are hitting gold hard and leaving investors little reason for holding the metal but if uncertainty is around the corner, maybe triggered by China’s slowdown or the Fed’s exit plan or both, then this may help gold fight back and limit the slide.

Due to gold’s multi-year bull market there aren’t many clear standout support levels to help a strong bounce. $1156 is the next potential support level established after a bull market pullback in May 2010 however this is not comforting for the bulls given we are about $140 away from that level. Therefore more declines are expected but this week looks like we may see a rebound before more another downward leg after Friday printed a bullish harami and the RSI has recovered to the 30 level. If the stochastic can cross back above 20 with a cross of the fast and slow lines this will add to the probability of a bounce and take into account that price is also trading on the outside of the lower Bollinger Band signalling a forthcoming correction. Target level will be the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level at $1315 which should deliver some resistance and if price can push pass it will find more resistance at previous support level $1321. Gold was range bound between $1338 and $1423 for over 4 weeks across May and June and any break to the upside or downside is likely to dictate sentiment for the rest of the year therefore longer term position traders should consider shorts after corrections. Of course things can change if the US economic recovery has setbacks and stimulus prevails however right now things are very bearish for gold over the long term.

This week holds a relatively busy economic agenda mainly centred on the US. On Tuesday we have New Home Sales, US House Prices and the UK’s inflation report that could indirectly affect gold by moving the GBP/USD pair. On Wednesday there is a final measure of US growth for the 1st quarter which is expected to be 2.4% so be ready to trade following any surprises there. On Thursday we have the US Weekly Jobless Claims and Pending Home Sales and Friday brings a bunch of data releases from Japan covering inflation, house prices, retail and industrial output.

Metal suffer worst week since April – Market Analysis Monday 24th of June

Hang Seng Index ended down, Bearish Not Ended

Hong Kong stock exchange for trading days last week suffered impairment recorded. Exchange closed again weakened due to negative sentiment that has raised fears of the U.S. economy post the plan on Fed statement will lift economic stimulus policy.

Technically, the index on the trading session today, Monday (24/06) chance to weaken, test negative trends, browse Wall Street. On the H1 chart bearish engulfing formation provides an opportunity for the index to move downside. However, the volume tends to rise, early indications bulish index. In addition, RSI, on the H1 chart, selling in saturated areas, signal upside.

Partly, the index test in advance Support level ie 19 038 and 18 454. If they fail at 19 899, then the index is estimated to tend to test further back resistance level that is 20 532 and the possibility of being extended to 21 240 in the area.

EUR / USD: Euro Drops Further, Support 1.3095 | EU Data Focus

In Friday trading yesterday, the opening price of EUR / USD at 1.3221. Movement of this currency pair experienced pretty sharp corrective decline, the amplification precede the peak level Pulled 1.3250 then back to 1.3095 after the policy level through 1.3158 support (low, 20 June). Closing price at 1.3115, marked by a bearish candle.

Technically, today’s trading session on Monday (24/06), the pair euro dollar opportunity to move in a negative trend.

Predicted weakening of the Euro, especially immediately test back Support minimum and maximum that is at 1.2896 1.2774. And as, if able to break and last Euro above 1.3104, then the other alternative scenario ie Euro chance to test resistance at 1.3262 and 1.3413 area.

Gold Rebound In New York After the Fall to Lowest Since 2010

Gold rose from its lowest since 2010, with speculation that the collapse could trigger a purchase. Metal suffer worst week since April after Federal Reserve chairman Ben S Bernanke said the central bank could hold stimulusnya.

Technically, gold at today’s trading session, Monday (24/06) reversal potential, tested positive trend, but prone to profit taking. RSI indicators tend to re-test resistance bullish channel and head area, but Bollinger band began to shrink, giving impetus to gold to the downside.

Chance of gold price immediately prior to test resistance at least in the area and re-test 1327.45 maximum level of 1345.82. But if the price of gold can not afford to break and survive under 1294.00 then predicted the gold price potentially testing Support ie 1273.63 and 1254.63.

XULF Report 18/06 - Markets are awaiting for Bernanke's comments at the FOMC press conference

XULF Report

Another quiet and range bound period is expected today as the markets wait for Bernanke’s comments at the FOMC press conference on Wednesday scheduled 19:00 GMT. Taking into account the mixed bag of data and the unspectacular May Non-Farms Bernanke is likely to reiterate stimulus reduction is data dependant therefore gold looks like it could be stuck in the $1375 to $1390 range for some time to come. There could be some volatility beforehand if the US housing data tonight shows further improvement in new builds which could cause a spike in equities and suppress gold but it does feel like gold needs a significant shift in the fundamental outlook in order for the bears to gain control over the bulls.

Keep looking to sell at resistance and buy at support levels displayed by shooting stars and hammers and/or two or more touches of a certain price level as this is the best way to capture a few dollars of profit before we see the big next move. It is worth noting the bullish trendline that is visible on the 1 hour chart coloured green. As I write price is sitting on the trendline making its fourth touch so there could be an opportunity to achieve a short term profit via a bounce or break. The red horizontal line displays shorter term resistance at $1385 that has received 3 touches so far today so again look for bounce or breaks at this level.

Taking a longer term view from a technical perspective remember the two side by side shooting stars on the weekly chart which has now been followed by a bullish hammer. The shadows on the shooting stars are longer than the hammers shadow meaning the bears still have the upper hand so look for good entry levels to short if you don’t mind taking on the risk and volatility that will occur on Wednesday. Sometimes candlesticks do not have immediate effects but can influence price at a later date.

Market Analysis Tuesday 18th of June

ANALYSIS 18-06-2013

Kospi worry about Global Economy

Kospi fell as widespread concerns over global economic growth outlook. G-8 confirms outlook for the global economy remains weak despite slowdown risk has been reduced.

Technically, the index in the trading session today, Tuesday (18/06) likely to weaken, test negative trends, the impact of Wall Street. On the M30 chart bearish engulfing berformasi provide opportunities for the index to move downside. However, the volume is likely to increase, an early indication of bullish index. In addition, RSI, on the M30 chart, is in the oversold area, cue upside.

Expected, the index tested the first support level ie 241.16 and 238.37. If it fails at 245.55, then the next index is expected to tend to retest the 248.66 resistance level and continue up the possibility of being in the 251.55 area.

Stock Trading Session duration in Europe, Euro Steady Against U.S. Dollar

Trading foreign exchange on Monday the euro just naturally a little movement against the U.S. dollar as investors await the outcome of a U.S. Federal Reserve meeting later this week.

Technically, today’s trading session on Tuesday (18/06), the pair euro dollar likely to move in a positive trend.

A stronger Euro is mainly expected to soon re-test the resistance at 1.3541 minimum and maximum 1.3659. Meanwhile, if the Euro was unable to break and stays below 1.3357 then another alternative scenario the Euro likely to test support at the 1.3228 area and 1.3117.

Gold prices closed down to $ 1,383.10

Gold prices ended closed down after the broker more waiting to be ahead of the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting which will take place this week.

Technically, gold at today’s trading session on Tuesday (18/06) potentially bearish, test returned negative trend, but prone to reversal. RSI indicator tends to re-test support channel and towards the oversold area, but Bollinger Band which began to widen, thus giving impetus to gold to the upside.

Estimated gold price immediately prior to test support at least in the area of ​​1356.12 and re-test the maximum level of 1340.66. However, if the price of gold is able to break and hold above 1384.90 then estimated the price of gold could potentially test the Resistance 1404.16 and 1421.66.

Jalatama Loco London (XULF) Report 13/06/2013

XULF Report
Gold staged an impressive recovery yesterday reaching a high of $1394.64 attributed to a falling US Dollar against the Japanese Yen and the Euro. Due to the rapid gains of USD/JPY this year we are seeing a strong correction which has prevented gold from declining at the rate we witnessed in April and stabilize somewhat. Although the dollar should eventually begin to resume its bull trend as the Fed starts to wind down stimulus and more money flows from emerging markets into US Treasuries as investors seek out the right balance of safety and returns. The main news today will be the US Retail Sales and Jobless Claims 13:30 GMT although given the lack of trend in the Retail Sales this number is unlikely to cause any great shakes.

Taking a technical perspective to predict gold’s movement in the short term is rather difficult due to the volatility, mainly ascribed to the USD/JPY, which has resulted in any trend having a very short lifespan. Stimulus tapering, slowing Chinese growth and a substantial USD/JPY correction are having conflicting effects on gold meaning its lacking any assertive direction. One thing worth pointing out is the price convergence on the daily chart that illustrates the opposing forces via a triangle pattern. Since April’s fall the trading range for gold is becoming increasingly tighter manifested by the triangle and a breakout could dictate the direction for the following weeks or even months. A push up towards $1420 again would break gold out of the triangle and generate momentum for surpassing the $1423.90 high achieved 6th June. A drop below $1345 would mean the bears have the upper hand and have the confidence to break down support of $1321 which was the low of the year.

Market Analysis Thursday 13th of June

Nikkei index plummeted; Global Stock Market profanity
In trading on the Japanese stock market Wednesday morning that decline more sharply. Japanese stocks under selling pressure amid plunging global stock exchanges. A stronger yen and disappointment that the BOJ did not provide better policies to address the volatility in the bond market make market participants decide to exit the market.

Technically, the index in the trading session today, Thursday (13/06) likely to weaken, test negative trends, the impact of Wall Street. At the H4 chart bearish engulfing formation provides opportunities for the index to move downside. However, the volume is likely to increase, an early indication of a bullish index. In addition, RSI, on the H4 chart, is in the oversold area, cue upside.

Expected, the index tested the first support level ie 12024 and 11495. If it fails in 12790, we then estimated the index tends to retest the resistance level of 13341 and continued up to the possibility of being in the 13824 area.

USD / JPY: Dollar Yen Low Approach, Focus on U.S. Data
In trading Wednesday, the opening price of USD / JPY at 96.04. The movement of this currency pair experienced a sharp decline in the range, preceded strengthening to peak at 97.01 level and then pulled back up to ground level after passing support 95.13 95.58 (low, June 11). Closing price at 95.85, marked with a doji candle.

Technically, the trading session today, Thursday (13/06), the dollar yen pair has a chance to move in a negative trend.

Weakening Yen primarily expected soon reexamine the minimum support at 92.86 and 91.58 maximum. Meanwhile, if the Yen is able to break and hold above 95.34, then another alternative scenario the chance to test Resistance Yen’s in the area of ​​96.95 and 98.39.

Gold prices ended up, BOJ policy influence fluctuations
Gold prices in futures trading in the U.S. session today ended up in early trading Wednesday after briefly weakened back where traders expect the Fed will continue its quantitative policy to not make meaningful changes.

Technically, gold in the trading session today, Thursday (13/06) potential reversal, tested positive trend, but prone to profit taking. Indicator RSI resistance likely to re-test the bullish channel and into the area, but the Bollinger Bands are starting to shrink, thus giving impetus to gold to the downside.

Estimated gold price immediately prior to test resistance at least in the area of ​​1413.65 and re-test the maximum level of 1432.79. However, if the gold price could not break and stays below 1385.25 then estimated the price of gold has the potential to test Support the 1363.25 and 1345.11.

Market Analysis Wednesday 12th of June

Nikkei Concerned About Strengthening Yen

Nikkei fell as investors worried about the impact of the strengthening of the Japanese yen against the performance of exporters in the international market. USD / JPY rose 3% last night and had touched 95.58 near its strongest level in two months.

Technically, the index in the trading session today, Wednesday (12/06) likely to weaken, test negative trends, the impact of Wall Street. On the bearish engulfing formation M15 chart gives an opportunity for the index to move downside. However, the volume is likely to increase, an early indication of a bullish index. In addition, RSI, on the M15 chart, is in the oversold area, cue upside.

Expected, the index tested the first support level ie 12164 and 11634. If it fails in 13060, we then estimated the index tends to retest the resistance level of 13658 and continued up to the possibility of being in the 14264 area.

ECB’s Asmussen statement Rescuing Euro

The euro managed to continue its rally against the U.S. dollar after comments one member of the board of the European Central Bank, Joerg Asmussen.

Technically, today’s trading session on Wednesday (12/06), the pair euro dollar likely to move in a positive trend.

A stronger Euro is mainly expected to soon re-test the resistance at 1.3449 minimum and maximum 1.3545. Meanwhile, if the Euro was unable to break and stays below 1.3309 then another alternative scenario the Euro likely to test support at the 1.3196 area and 1.3091.

Bury the BoJ Stimulus anxiety Gold

Gold closed down less than 1% on Tuesday, after touching a low level in nearly six weeks, as the lack of a new economic stimulus from the Bank of Japan sparked fears that other central banks may also withdraw its support, eroding the appeal of gold as a means of inflation hedge. Gold fell as much as 1.4% after the Bank of Japan refrained the new policy, arguing that the bond market has stabilized.

Technically, gold at today’s trading session on Wednesday (12/06) potentially bearish, test returned negative trend, but prone to reversal. RSI indicator tends to re-test support channel and towards the oversold area, but Bollinger Band which began to widen, thus giving impetus to gold to the upside.

Estimated gold price immediately prior to test support at least in the area of ​​1347.45 and re-test the maximum level of 1329.15. However, if the price of gold is able to break and hold above 1376.10 then estimated the price of gold could potentially test the Resistance 1398.78 and 1417.08.

Jalatama Loco London (XULF) Report 11/06/2013

XULF Report
Yesterday gold showed signs of the downtrend continuing reaching a low of $1375.70 before bouncing back into the $1380’s range as FOMC Member James Bullard said low inflation will allow the Fed to maintain the bond buying if conditions warranted it. In a press conference today the Bank of Japan announced the level of its stimulus remains unchanged and that they were more upbeat about the economy which caused a little volatility but the market has since calmed.

In the short term the outlook is rather neutral and it looks like there will be many ups and downs around the $1380’s but according to two consecutive shooting stars of the weekly chart it is probable price will finish towards the lower $1370’s by the week end. Most indicators are middle-of-the-road on shorter timeframes but traders looking for opportunities can look for a bounce or break of today’s bearish trendline. Consider shorting if price bounces printing a shooting star and consider a long trade once price has penetrated the trendline and then made a higher low.

Short targets remain the same at $1373 and $1354 which are previous support levels that received an influx of buy orders during May. If price breaks the bearish intra-day trendline be mindful not to be greedy given the recent turn of bearishness.
There could be some headline news disseminating from the first day of the German court ruling regarding the constitutionality of the ECB’s monetary operations therefore keep an eye on your newsfeeds and trade carefully.

Jalatama Loco London (XULF) Report 10/06/2013

XULF Report

Today gold has some trimmed some losses attributed to the US Non-Farms last Friday in a thinly traded market and has been consolidating for the last 6 hours between $1384 and $1388. In the short term the signals are bearish across most timeframes. The bullish trendline on the 4 hour chart has been broken and the 20 MA has just crossed below the 50 MA warning that the bears may get a firmer grasp of this market and the weekly chart is also bearish with two consecutive shooting stars. The 5 minute chart shows price has recently broken today’s upward trend indicating the retracement is rather weak. Therefore a short trade with a tight stop above today’s high around $1388/89 would be the obvious short term play with a low risk entry. Target levels are Friday’s low of $1378.80 and $1373.60 which acted as a strong support level on 28th May. If these levels fail to support gold then target $1354 which is the next support level established 22nd May. The economic calendar starts to get busy tomorrow so today is a good opportunity to apply price behavior tactics but do bear in mind that trading is rather light which can result in sharp and sudden movements that turn out to be misleading.

Jalatama Loco London (XULF) Weekly Report 10 – 14 June 2013

Weekly XULF Report 10 – 14 June 2013

Gold was having a steady performance last week until a better than expected US Non-Farms on Friday gave good reason for investors to ditch safe havens for riskier assets causing gold to erase all of its gains on Thursday to reach a two week low of $1378.80. For much of the week gold was hovering around the $1400 level until ECB President Mario Draghi’s comments triggered a spike to $1421 after he informed the markets that the economy should stabilize and recover during the course of the year and that further monetary stimulus was not at the forefront of policymakers’ minds. Investors bought the Euro and aggressively sold the dollar on the back of these comments. Gold’s gains were eradicated 24 hours later when the US Non-Farm data showed that despite the mixed set of data recently the US economy is creating more jobs raising the probability of stimulus tapering occurring before the latter parts of the year.

The biggest drag on gold at present is the anticipation of the Federal Reserve slowing down the bond purchases which will strengthen the dollar making gold more expensive for investors using other currencies. Contrary to popular opinion gold may hold its ground and be tough for the bears to control for the rest of the year. Gold has already priced in a significant chunk of this expectation by declining nearly 20% this year therefore it would be foolhardy to take further declines for granted when the Fed begins the slowdown. If the Fed cuts back too sharply we could see a strong equity correction and some losses for gold but as investors take a look at the bigger picture they may switch to safe haven assets amid the uncertainty generated by the removal of stimulus on such an unprecedented scale. In the other scenario if the Fed play it in a way that appeases investors this should result in lower volatility for both gold and equities which would regenerate some confidence in gold and be supportive for a good finish by the end of 2013.

Technically gold has been showing signs of a possible bounce back towards the long term bearish trendline over the past three weeks but last Friday’s drop means the weekly chart is now displaying two consecutive shooting stars. The 10, 20, 50 and 100 Moving Averages aligned in descending order illustrates the market is far away from any correction but the higher low on the RSI indicates the pace of the decline is diminishing. Bulls will have been watching for a break of the bearish trendline on the momentum indicator but unfortunately for them Friday’s performance looks as though the momentum indicator is now bouncing off its own trendline ready for another downward leg. So to summarise the outlook for gold it looks like there will be a descent during June but at a slowing rate. Although traders need to be mindful of gold’s resilience of late in face of bearish fundamentals which hints that the market may be ready for a correction towards the long term bearish trendline within the next few weeks.

We have an eventful week with various types of data scheduled including Japan’s monetary statement and press conference Tuesday which is likely to move USD/JPY. On Wednesday and Thursday Germany are concluding a constitutional ruling on the ECB’s monetary operations which will impact gold by moving the EUR/USD, Thursday reveals US Retail Sales for May and on Friday is the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment survey. Trade carefully around these numbers by using stop losses or reducing exposure.

Market Analysis Monday 10th of June

ANALYSIS 10-06-2013

Nikkei completely collapse

Japanese stock exchange to day trade last Friday closed weakened back. Attenuation due to the availability of stock movements a negative condition for economic projections after U.S. economic stimulus plan policy that will cost a fee of 85 billion would be postponed until the advent of the agreement among the members of the Fed. At the moment the exchange rate equals the yen against the dollar back up to suppress a rising share prices based exporters.

Technically, the index on the trading session today, Monday (10/06) chance to weaken, test negative trends, browse Wall Street. At the H4 chart bearish engulfing formation provides an opportunity for the index to move downside. However, the volume tends to rise, early indications bullish index. In addition, RSI, on the H4 chart, selling in saturated areas, signal upside.

Partly, the index test in advance Support level ie 12 421 and 11888. If failed in the 13310, the estimated index tend to test further back that is 13855 and resistance levels continued to be in the area of ​​14 407 possibilities.

USD / JPY: Dollar Yen Soar, 97.93 Resistance

At last Friday trading, the opening price of USD / JPY at 97.40. Movement of this currency pair experienced a sharp reversal of the direction of up, starting at the bottom level of attenuation to 94.97 after passing the 95.74 support (low, April 5) and then rebounds to the peak level of 97.76.

Technically, today’s trading session on Monday (10/06), the dollar yen pair had the opportunity to move in a positive trend.

Strengthening of yen mainly predicted back soon test resistance at 100.50 ie the minimum and maximum of 102.17. And as, if not capable of yen below 98.10 last break and then another alternative scenario ie Yen chance to test Support at 98.10 and 95.24 area.

Sales turnover Gold This Year Descending

Negative movement in the price of gold still happen on Saturday. The precious metal commodities reported depressed due to the availability of reports that precious metal sales turnover for this year experienced a decline of 45 billion dollars on imformasi from the U.S. Mint that is shaped gold sellers retail enterprises and coins.

Technically, gold trading session today on Monday (10/06) potentially bearish, test returned negative trend, but prone to reversal. RSI indicators tend to re-test Support channel oversold area and heading, but Bollinger Bands are beginning to widen, thus providing the impetus for gold for upside.

Chance of gold price immediately prior to test Support at least in the area of ​​re-test 1360.46 and 1344.38 maximum level. But if the price of gold is able to break above 1386.10 and defending the gold price estimated potential test resistance ie 1404.80 and 1420.39.

Jalatama Loco London (XULF) Report 07/06/2013

XULF Report

Gold bulls need to thank ECB President Mario Draghi and a break of a USD/JPY technical support level for the rally last night that reached a high of $1423.90. The ECB President stated further monetary easing was not at the forefront of policymakers’ minds which lifted the Euro and caused broad scale selling of the dollar. Technical USD/JPY support at 98.85 gave way to dollar bears helping to build strong downward momentum and consequentially pushing gold higher firmly back above $1400. Be aware the dollar decline may be a correction and considering the Fed is ready to taper stimulus and Japan are in the beginning phases of a new stimulus programme USD/JPY could recover rather quickly and hold back gold from making its overdue technical correction.

If price can move a couple dollars lower and complete the neckline at $1411.20 of a double top shown here on the 1 hour chart the short term is bearish and a feasible target is $1406 which is the 61.8% fib retracement level. Place a stop loss above the lower high at $1418 as a violation of this level will indicate more upward movement. Only look to short if this neckline is completed however the parabolic indicator is signalling a sell meaning it is probably the neckline will be achieved.

In an attempt of trying to assess where gold will move over the long term the weekly chart is providing some good information. The momentum indicator is currently at a critical point as it intersects with its bearish trendline. If we see a trendline break on this indicator it will be good for gold bulls as we should see a sustained correction. If this does occur long term position traders should target $1488 as a target level that could be possibly achieved in the next few weeks.

Market Analysis Friday 7th of June

Closed Hang Seng Index Decreased, Lowest Since 18 April

Hong Kong stocks closed lower Thursday. The fall in market movements caused by the presence of a stock sell-off by investors amid worries over the U.S. economy where the economic stimulus policies to cost around 85 billion dollars are expected to be delayed until the end of this year.

Technically, the index in the trading session today, Friday (07/06) likely to weaken, test negative trends, the impact of Wall Street. On the bearish engulfing formation M15 chart gives an opportunity for the index to move downside. However, the volume is likely to increase, an early indication of a bullish index. In addition, RSI, on the M15 chart, is in the oversold area, cue upside.

Expected, the index tested the first support level ie 21390 and 21273. If it fails in 21570, we then estimated the index tends to retest the resistance level of 21724 and continued up to the possibility of being in the 21842 area.

Yen Gains Ahead of Japan’s Cabinet Office Report

Japanese Yen on Friday morning it seems to strengthen against the Euro. USDJPY pair opened at 129.58 in early trading (00:00 GMT) and down around -62 pips or about -0.47%, indicating a strong yen against the euro. Scrolling value pair EURJPY looks to be in the range of 128.96.

Technically, the trading session today, Thursday (30/06), the dollar yen pair has a chance to move in a negative trend.

Weakening Yen primarily expected soon reexamine the minimum support at 95.25 and 93.95 maximum. Meanwhile, if the Yen is able to break and hold above 97.43, then another alternative scenario the chance to test Resistance Yen’s in the area of ​​99.22 and 100.56.

Gold Gains Ahead of Payrolls

Gold rose around 1% on Thursday, as the dollar fell sharply and concerns on the stock market oversold so encouraging investors to add positions to the precious metal ahead of the important non-farm payrolls on Friday.

Technically, gold at today’s trading session, Friday (07/06) potential reversal, tested positive trend, but prone to profit taking. Indicator RSI resistance likely to re-test the bullish channel and into the area, but the Bollinger Bands are starting to shrink, thus giving impetus to gold to the downside.

Estimated gold price immediately prior to test resistance at least in the area of ​​1438.78 and re-test the maximum level of 1452.86. However, if the gold price could not break and stays below 1415.25 then estimated the price of gold has the potential to test Support the 1397.98 and 1384.38.

Jalatama Loco London (XULF) Report 06/06/2013

XULF Report

Disappointing numbers from the ADP and Non-Manufacturing reports has so far produced an uninspiring set of data from the US this week. The private sector job creation is at a modest pace feeling the effects of government spending cuts which is causing extra anxiety ahead of the US Department of Labour jobs report this Friday. There are a lot of concerns at the moment and this is manifested in the pullback in equities at present. Without strong US data to offset the pessimism surrounding the Eurozone’s recession, China’s slowdown and scepticism over Japanese Prime Shinzo Abe’s growth plans we could a significant equity correction. The question of how gold will perform during an equity correction is subject to whether that correction occurs because of poor US economic data or because the stimulus tapering is going to happen sooner than anticipated. The former would be better for gold.

The uncertainty in the markets at the moment is nicely illustrated on the 4 hour chart. The bullish medium term trendline is still intact, although it has been fighting off a few attacks from the bears of late, but combined with the blue descending trendline we have a symmetrical triangle emanating the wait-and-see mode of the market ahead on Friday’s Non-Farms. Trade any breakout very cautiously before the Non-Farms as we could see a false breakout. Also be aware there will be considerable volatility when ECB President Mario Draghi speaks at a press conference at 20:30 tonight as investors listen for clues as to what is the next move for the ECB amid a dire Eurozone. Unless Draghi gives an aggressive and determined stance towards supporting the Euro traders are likely to short the Euro which will push gold lower. If we get a downside break $1388, $1384 and $1373 are the short term targets as these are levels buyer interest will increase. A break to the upside target $1410, $1417 and $1421.